Development and impact analysis of ground motion datasets for potential strong-to-great seismic scenarios in Chinese mainland

Ground-motion data (GMD) are essential for regional seismic-hazard and resilience assessments; however, accessible GMD for potential earthquakes in mainland China remain critically limited. To fill this gap, we identified 50 seismogenic locations informed by geological and seismological hazard zonations and defined four magnitude levels (Mw 6.5, 7.0, 7.5, and 8.0) aligned with potential damage thresholds, yielding 200 earthquake scenarios. For each scenario, we applied a robust ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE)—validated in recent Chinese emergency responses—to generate 1 km × 1 km shapefiles of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and Chinese seismic intensity (CSI). We then assessed the impacts of seismic hazard on counties, population exposure, and building stocks. Results indicate that the Jin–Ji, Shan–Gan, and Chuan–Yun junctions are most susceptible to major earthquakes. Under the Mw 7.5 scenario, seismic hazards in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and central Shaanxi warrant particular attention to urban–rural exposure disparities, transport network vulnerabilities, and photovoltaic infrastructure risks. These high-resolution GMD support disaster-loss modeling, urban-resilience assessments, and infrastructure-vulnerability analyses. Future work will integrate station monitoring and numerical simulations to refine seismic-damage evaluations and emergency-response planning.