{"title":"重新思考行星保护：一个岛屿生物地理学分析。","authors":"Daniel J Brener, Charles S Cockell","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0079","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We reconsider the problem of planetary protection using, by the analogy of planets as islands, the theory of island biogeography. We show that although the notion of equilibrium populations that emerge from the effects of immigration and extinction generally breaks down when applied to interplanetary scales, the mean-time to extinction resulting from the combined effects of growth and death rates can be quantified. We reconsider the probabilistic model of planetary protection, discuss how mean-time to extinction can instead be used to assess contamination risk, and we propose a research direction for planetary protection based on these ideas. We discuss more broadly the applicability of island biogeography to considering biotic transfer at interplanetary scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":17488,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","volume":"22 227","pages":"20250079"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12187411/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Rethinking planetary protection: an island biogeographical analysis.\",\"authors\":\"Daniel J Brener, Charles S Cockell\",\"doi\":\"10.1098/rsif.2025.0079\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>We reconsider the problem of planetary protection using, by the analogy of planets as islands, the theory of island biogeography. We show that although the notion of equilibrium populations that emerge from the effects of immigration and extinction generally breaks down when applied to interplanetary scales, the mean-time to extinction resulting from the combined effects of growth and death rates can be quantified. We reconsider the probabilistic model of planetary protection, discuss how mean-time to extinction can instead be used to assess contamination risk, and we propose a research direction for planetary protection based on these ideas. We discuss more broadly the applicability of island biogeography to considering biotic transfer at interplanetary scales.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":17488,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of The Royal Society Interface\",\"volume\":\"22 227\",\"pages\":\"20250079\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12187411/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of The Royal Society Interface\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"103\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2025.0079\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"综合性期刊\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/6/25 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2025.0079","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/6/25 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Rethinking planetary protection: an island biogeographical analysis.
We reconsider the problem of planetary protection using, by the analogy of planets as islands, the theory of island biogeography. We show that although the notion of equilibrium populations that emerge from the effects of immigration and extinction generally breaks down when applied to interplanetary scales, the mean-time to extinction resulting from the combined effects of growth and death rates can be quantified. We reconsider the probabilistic model of planetary protection, discuss how mean-time to extinction can instead be used to assess contamination risk, and we propose a research direction for planetary protection based on these ideas. We discuss more broadly the applicability of island biogeography to considering biotic transfer at interplanetary scales.
期刊介绍：
J. R. Soc. Interface welcomes articles of high quality research at the interface of the physical and life sciences. It provides a high-quality forum to publish rapidly and interact across this boundary in two main ways: J. R. Soc. Interface publishes research applying chemistry, engineering, materials science, mathematics and physics to the biological and medical sciences; it also highlights discoveries in the life sciences of relevance to the physical sciences. Both sides of the interface are considered equally and it is one of the only journals to cover this exciting new territory. J. R. Soc. Interface welcomes contributions on a diverse range of topics, including but not limited to; biocomplexity, bioengineering, bioinformatics, biomaterials, biomechanics, bionanoscience, biophysics, chemical biology, computer science (as applied to the life sciences), medical physics, synthetic biology, systems biology, theoretical biology and tissue engineering.
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