面向未来的电网:从可变性到可预测性与可扩展的人工智能光伏能源集成

IF 5.9 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS
Mariem Kammoun, Manef Bourogaoui
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引用次数: 0

摘要

可再生能源,特别是太阳能的日益一体化,由于发电量和电压的波动,对维持电网的稳定提出了挑战。这个问题尤其重要,因为太阳能是高度可变的,并且取决于天气条件,这使得保持电网的稳定和可靠变得困难。因此,迫切需要能够帮助预测这些变化并改进网格管理方式的精确工具。本研究利用基于人工智能的方法,结合气候数据分析和电网模拟,解决了这些挑战。该分析依赖于关键的环境变量:太阳辐照、温度和风速来预测两个关键的输出:整个网络的功率和电压水平。在测试的模型中,支持向量回归(SVR)对功率预测的效果最好。在IEEE 123总线网络上,SVR的RMSE为183.07,MAE为169.15,保持在400kw的可接受范围内。对于电压预测,长短期记忆(LSTM)模型通过捕获长期时间依赖性而表现最佳。在IEEE 123总线网络上,LSTM的RMSE为0.0133,MAE为0.0104,远低于可接受的误差阈值0.015 pu。因此,通过解决电网运行中的现实挑战,本研究有助于能源系统变得更加灵活和高效。拟议的方法支持向更稳定、清洁和智能的能源基础设施过渡。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Future-ready power grids: From variability to predictability with scalable AI for PV energy integration
The increasing integration of renewable energy, particularly solar power, presents challenges in maintaining grid stability due to fluctuations in power generation and voltage variations. This issue is especially important because solar energy is highly variable and depends on weather conditions, which makes it difficult to keep the power grid stable and reliable. Therefore, there is a strong need for accurate tools that can help predict these changes and improve the way the grid is managed. This study addresses these challenges by leveraging AI-based methods that combine climate data analysis and power grid simulations. The analysis relies on key environmental variables: solar irradiation, temperature, and wind speed to predict two critical outputs: power and voltage levels across the network. Among the tested models, Support Vector Regression (SVR) gave the best performance for power prediction. On the IEEE 123-bus Network, SVR achieved an RMSE of 183.07 and an MAE of 169.15, remaining well within the acceptable margin of 400 kW. For voltage prediction, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model performed best by capturing long-term time dependencies. On the IEEE 123-bus Network, LSTM achieved an RMSE of 0.0133 and an MAE of 0.0104 for Bus 64, staying well below the acceptable error threshold of 0.015 pu. Accordingly, through addressing a real-world challenge in electrical network operation, this study helps energy systems become more flexible and efficient. The proposed approach supports the transition toward a more stable, clean, and intelligent energy infrastructure.
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来源期刊
Renewable Energy Focus
Renewable Energy Focus Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
CiteScore
7.10
自引率
8.30%
发文量
0
审稿时长
48 days
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