2015-2022年美国61个城市警力投入与社区枪支暴力事件的关系

IF 3.2 3区医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Public Health Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI:10.1016/j.puhe.2025.105841

Anita Wamakima , Leah E. Roberts , Siena Wanders , Christopher N. Morrison , Elinore Kaufman , Madison Cook , Jessica H. Beard

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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了了解警务投入的增加是否与社区枪支暴力（CFV）发生率的下降有关，我们研究了美国城市枪击率和警察资金的时间趋势，并探讨了警察支出与社区枪支暴力发生率之间的关系。我们利用2015年至2022年美国61个大城市的数据进行了生态时空面板分析。方法警察支出来源于城市预算，枪击数据来源于枪支暴力档案。采用负二项混合效应回归，控制已知或理论上影响CFV发病率的社会因素。结果平均每10万人口发生42.8起枪击事件，平均每10万人口每年增加2.9起。警察的经费也平均每年每10万人增加286 781美元。在混合效应模型中，警察支出与枪击事件之间没有显著的关联(IRR 0.95；95%置信区间:0.78,1.16)。使用一年滞后时间对枪击事件和警察支出进行敏感性分析并没有实质性地改变结果。结论：在研究期间，美国各城市的枪击事件和警察拨款都有所增加。我们没有观察到警察经费与CFV发生率之间的显著关联。

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Association between police funding and community firearm violence incidence in 61 US cities, 2015–2022

Objective

To understand if increased investment in policing is associated with decreased rates of community firearm violence (CFV), we examined temporal trends in shooting rates and police funding and explored associations between police expenditure and CFV incidence in United States (US) cities.

Study design

We conducted an ecological space-time panel analysis utilizing data from 61 large cities in the United States from 2015 to 2022.

Methods

Police expenditure was obtained from city budgets and shooting data were abstracted from Gun Violence Archive. Negative binominal mixed-effects regression was performed, controlling for social factors known or theorized to impact CFV incidence.

Results

There was a mean of 42.8 shootings/100,000 population, with a mean increase of 2.9 shootings/100,000 population/year. Police funding also increased by an average of $286,781/100,000 population/year. No significant association was observed between police expenditure and shooting incidence in the mixed effects model (IRR 0.95; 95 %CI:0.78,1.16). Sensitivity analyses using one-year lags for shootings and police expenditure did not substantively change results.

Conclusions

Shootings and police funding increased in cities throughout the US during the study period. We did not observe a significant association between police funding and CFV incidence.

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来源期刊

Public Health 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

280

审稿时长

37 days

期刊介绍： Public Health is an international, multidisciplinary peer-reviewed journal. It publishes original papers, reviews and short reports on all aspects of the science, philosophy, and practice of public health.