经济发展如何影响交通安全：来自中国的证据

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.004

Jian Chan , Qi Li , Tao Shi

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引用次数: 0

摘要

基于2002 - 2019年中国31个内陆省份样本。本文采用GTWR模型分析了潜在路径下经济发展对交通安全的影响。结果表明：(1)中国道路交通事故总体上处于较低水平且呈下降趋势，道路交通事故在空间上呈由东北向西南递减的梯度，大部分区域处于低—低集聚型区域，表现出集聚效应。(2) 2012年前经济发展对道路交通事故的影响为正，2012年后经济发展对道路交通事故的影响为负，且具有空间异质性。(3)教育程度和市场环境在经济发展对道路交通事故的影响中起负向调节作用。最后，提供了政策含义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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How economic development impacts transportation safety: Evidence from China

Based on 31 inland provincial samples from 2002 to 2019 in China. This article adopted the GTWR model to analyze the impact of economic development in transportation safety with the potential path. The results can be concluded as follows: (1) China's road traffic accident is at a lower level with a downward trend, and the road traffic accident spatially decrease gradient from northeast to southwest and most regions are at the Lower-Lower cluster type regions showing a cluster effect. (2) The impact of economic development on the road traffic accident is positive before 2012 and negative after 2012 respectively with spatial heterogeneity characteristics. (3) The education level and market environment play negative moderating role in the impact of economic development on the road traffic accident. Finally, policy implications are provided.

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.