Analyzing the causes of vacant houses through geospatial and panel data analyses in Japan

This study analyzed the housing vacancy rate across Japan to investigate the effects of urban scale, industrial specialization, weather, and transportation factors on vacant house occurrences. The findings indicate that analyzing vacant house occurrences on an urban scale is more important than on a metropolitan area status. Big cities exhibited a higher housing vacancy rate for rental housing and housing for sale, whereas medium cities, small cities, and towns/villages showed higher and increasing trends in other housing. Areas with low industrial specialization exhibited higher vacancy rates; however, we assume that promoting high-level industrial diversification could reduce vacancy rates. Changes in urban planning policies since 2008, population movements, and economic conditions are speculated to have influenced the increase in the housing vacancy rate. Particularly, the increase in the number of hotels in tourist areas was closely related to a reduction in the housing vacancy rate. Given that temperature, humidity, and precipitation across Japan showed significant correlations with the housing vacancy rate, they should be considered when formulating vacant house policies. Areas with railway access demonstrated lower housing vacancy rate, indicating that including railway development in urban development plans could effectively reduce housing vacancy rate. This study contributes to developing strategies to address vacant houses in Japan.