Pathway selection to achieving synergistic benefits of pollution and carbon reduction through solid waste resource utilization based on system dynamics

As carbon peaking and neutrality goals advance, along with the development of “Zero-Waste City,” the resource utilization of solid waste has garnered considerable attention for its dual impact on reducing pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, there is limited research on synergistic evaluation in the field of solid waste. This research seeks to develop a quantitative approach for evaluating the synergistic degree of solid waste utilization and offers recommendations for selecting comprehensive and effective development pathways. A system dynamics (SD) model encompassing eight categories of influencing factors was developed to predict the synergy index (SI) for China from 2024 to 2050. The results indicate that China's solid waste resource utilization will yield significant co-benefits in both pollution and carbon reduction, with a greater impact on pollutant reduction than on GHG mitigation. The level of technology and education, urbanization, economic development, and resource utilization have a crucial impact on the synergy between pollution and carbon reduction. Moderately slowing the urbanization process in the short term, accelerating technological and educational development, and optimizing industrial structure can enhance the carbon emission reduction benefits of solid waste resource utilization. This study not only provides a methodological reference for quantifying the synergistic degree of pollution and carbon reduction through solid waste resource utilization at a national scale, but also delineates the dynamic patterns between various influencing factors and synergy, offering a foundation for selecting development pathways.