Strategic foresight analysis for the management of land-sea interface in a climate change context: A comprehensive literature review

The Land-Sea Interface (LSI) is a dynamic zone where terrestrial and marine ecosystems interact, supporting critical economic activities and providing essential ecological benefits. However, these areas face the multiple land- and sea-based challenges of climate change and multi-level governance fragmentation.

In this context, innovative methodologies are needed to explore future scenarios and support decisions. Strategic foresight analysis has emerged as a proactive approach to address complex issues, helping anticipate and prepare for future challenges. This article summarizes the current literature on strategic foresight analysis for managing LSIs. Through a scoping assessment, the fundamental concepts and theoretical frameworks are identified. This step provides the foundation for conducting a scientometric analysis, providing insights into the evolution and areas of interest of this approach. Next, a systematic review examines peer-reviewed publications that apply strategic foresight at the LSI, emphasizing aspects such as focus topics, stakeholder engagement, and tools utilized.

Review results reveal some main advantages, including its interdisciplinarity and capacity to facilitate transdisciplinary collaborative exercises to anticipate threats, and inform adaptive decision-making processes.

Tools such as horizon scanning and scenario planning are widely explored; however, other methods, including backcasting and road mapping, remain unexploited.

Trends evidence increasing climate change considerations, although most studies emphasize qualitative approaches instead of data-based quantitative analysis.

Finally, many foresight studies emphasize participatory approaches. However, local communities and Indigenous populations perspectives, remain insufficient.

The future of LSI governance relies on inclusive and adaptive approaches, where strategic foresight empowers societies to navigate, adapt, and shape the future.