估计和预测可归因于儿童期性虐待或亲密伴侣暴力的全球精神障碍负担：对2021年全球疾病负担研究的分析

IF 4.9 2区医学 Q1 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY

Journal of affective disorders Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI:10.1016/j.jad.2025.119717

Ke-chen Xu , Ying Xie , Fang Chu , Meng-ting Li , Ze-qi Hao , Collins Opoku Antwi , Peter Darko Adjei , Zi-yi Li , Jun Ren

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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景：作为一种主要的全球疾病负担，精神障碍需要通过残疾调整生命年（DALYs）和残疾生活年（YLDs）对相关风险因素进行严格评估，以了解其公共卫生影响。方法：利用2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）的数据，我们主要关注儿童性虐待（CSA）和亲密伴侣暴力（IPV）对全球精神障碍负担的影响。我们按性别、年龄、社会人口指数（SDI）和国家估计了DALYs/YLDs的数量和年龄标准化率（ASR），并计算了估计的年百分比变化（EAPC）。此外，我们使用自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测了2022 - 2050年的DALYs/YLDs。结果：1990 - 2021年，csa导致的DALYs/YLDs的ASR从每10万人18.25（95% %不确定区间[UI] 9.04-31.13）下降到18.08 (95%UI 8.75-30.97)，而ipv导致的ASR在COVID-19大流行期间上升到33.57 （95%UI 0.11-73.57）。2021年，40-45岁年龄组的伤残调整年/伤残发展年比率最高。与男性相比，女性表现出更高的可归因于CSA的DALYs/YLDs的数量和ASR，并且作为IPV的唯一受害者，预计从2022年到2050年，她们在这两个指标上都将下降。低sdi地区的DALYs和YLDs的ASR始终最高。印度、中国和美国的负担最重，其中美国的增长趋势最高（EAPC: 1.54 [95%UI - 1.25-1.83]），而中国则呈现下降趋势（EAPC: -1.88 [95%UI -2.14 - -1.61]）。结论：CSA和IPV是精神障碍的关键危险因素。在过去，女性的负担往往引起更多的关注，但我们看到男性的CSA呈上升趋势。新加坡等一些国家表现良好，而其他国家则在苦苦挣扎。因此，越野学习在管理CSA和IPV及其伴随的精神障碍方面具有重要意义。

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Estimating and forecasting global burden of mental disorders attributable to childhood sexual abuse or intimate partner violence: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

As a leading global disease burden, mental disorders require critical assessment of related risk factors through disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) to understand their public health impact.

Methods

With the data available from 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD), we mainly focused on the effect of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and intimate partner violence (IPV) on global burden of mental disorders. We estimated numbers and the age-standardized rate (ASR) of DALYs/YLDs by sex, age, socio-demographic index (SDI), and country, and calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Moreover, we forecasted the DALYs/YLDs using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model from 2022 to 2050.

Findings

From 1990 to 2021, the ASR of CSA-attributable DALYs/YLDs has declined from 18.25 (95 % uncertainty interval [UI] 9.04–31.13) to 18.08 (95%UI 8.75–30.97) per 100,000 population, while IPV-attributable ASR increased to 33.57 (95%UI 0.11–73.57) during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, the highest DALYs/YLDs rate was observed in the 40–45 age group. Females exhibited a higher number and ASR of DALYs/YLDs attributable to CSA than males, and as the sole victims of IPV, they are projected to experience a decline in both metrics from 2022 to 2050. Low-SDI regions consistently had the highest ASR of DALYs and YLDs. India, China, and the U.S. bear the greatest burden, with the U.S. showing the highest increasing trend (EAPC: 1.54 [95%UI 1.25–1.83]), while China exhibited a decline (EAPC: −1.88 [95%UI -2.14 to −1.61]).

Conclusions

CSA and IPV are key risk factors for mental disorders. The burden imposed on women often attracted more attention in the past, but we see a rising trend in CSA in men. Certain countries like Singapore are doing well while others are struggling. Cross-country learning is thus put forward as important in managing CSA and IPV and their attendant mental disorders.

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来源期刊

Journal of affective disorders 医学-精神病学

CiteScore

10.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

1319

审稿时长

9.3 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal of Affective Disorders publishes papers concerned with affective disorders in the widest sense: depression, mania, mood spectrum, emotions and personality, anxiety and stress. It is interdisciplinary and aims to bring together different approaches for a diverse readership. Top quality papers will be accepted dealing with any aspect of affective disorders, including neuroimaging, cognitive neurosciences, genetics, molecular biology, experimental and clinical neurosciences, pharmacology, neuroimmunoendocrinology, intervention and treatment trials.