Janne Estill , Emneteab G. Belayneh , Sarah Beale , Olivia Keiser
{"title":"估计2023年瑞士受COVID-19后状况影响的人数:数学模型","authors":"Janne Estill , Emneteab G. Belayneh , Sarah Beale , Olivia Keiser","doi":"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107963","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>We aimed to estimate the prevalence and incidence of post COVID-19 condition (presence of symptoms related to a SARS-CoV-2 infection at least 3 months earlier) in Switzerland in 2023 using mathematical modeling.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We constructed a deterministic compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, extended with a module to calculate incidence and prevalence of post COVID-19 condition stratified by symptom cluster (fatigue, neuropsychiatric, and cardiopulmonary). We explored different scenarios to account for the uncertainty in model parameters and reported the mean value with a full range of results.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>From October to December 2023, the model projected 61,300 (range across scenarios: 7900-195,000) new cases of post COVID-19 in Switzerland. The number of individuals with prevalent post COVID-19 remained stable during the year, decreasing minimally from 386,900 (87,500-930,600) in June to 380,800 (62,100-990,800) in December 2023. Neuropsychiatric disorders were the most common symptoms. About half of the individuals with post COVID-19 condition at the end of 2023 had been affected by the symptoms by more than 6 months.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>At least 1% of the Swiss population is affected by the long-term consequences of COVID-19, and this proportion is likely to be multiple times higher. The prevalence is expected to remain at a high level also in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14006,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 107963"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimation of the number of people affected by post COVID-19 condition in Switzerland in 2023: a mathematical model\",\"authors\":\"Janne Estill , Emneteab G. Belayneh , Sarah Beale , Olivia Keiser\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107963\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>We aimed to estimate the prevalence and incidence of post COVID-19 condition (presence of symptoms related to a SARS-CoV-2 infection at least 3 months earlier) in Switzerland in 2023 using mathematical modeling.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We constructed a deterministic compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, extended with a module to calculate incidence and prevalence of post COVID-19 condition stratified by symptom cluster (fatigue, neuropsychiatric, and cardiopulmonary). We explored different scenarios to account for the uncertainty in model parameters and reported the mean value with a full range of results.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>From October to December 2023, the model projected 61,300 (range across scenarios: 7900-195,000) new cases of post COVID-19 in Switzerland. The number of individuals with prevalent post COVID-19 remained stable during the year, decreasing minimally from 386,900 (87,500-930,600) in June to 380,800 (62,100-990,800) in December 2023. Neuropsychiatric disorders were the most common symptoms. About half of the individuals with post COVID-19 condition at the end of 2023 had been affected by the symptoms by more than 6 months.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>At least 1% of the Swiss population is affected by the long-term consequences of COVID-19, and this proportion is likely to be multiple times higher. The prevalence is expected to remain at a high level also in the future.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14006,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Infectious Diseases\",\"volume\":\"158 \",\"pages\":\"Article 107963\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Infectious Diseases\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225001870\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225001870","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimation of the number of people affected by post COVID-19 condition in Switzerland in 2023: a mathematical model
Objectives
We aimed to estimate the prevalence and incidence of post COVID-19 condition (presence of symptoms related to a SARS-CoV-2 infection at least 3 months earlier) in Switzerland in 2023 using mathematical modeling.
Methods
We constructed a deterministic compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, extended with a module to calculate incidence and prevalence of post COVID-19 condition stratified by symptom cluster (fatigue, neuropsychiatric, and cardiopulmonary). We explored different scenarios to account for the uncertainty in model parameters and reported the mean value with a full range of results.
Results
From October to December 2023, the model projected 61,300 (range across scenarios: 7900-195,000) new cases of post COVID-19 in Switzerland. The number of individuals with prevalent post COVID-19 remained stable during the year, decreasing minimally from 386,900 (87,500-930,600) in June to 380,800 (62,100-990,800) in December 2023. Neuropsychiatric disorders were the most common symptoms. About half of the individuals with post COVID-19 condition at the end of 2023 had been affected by the symptoms by more than 6 months.
Conclusions
At least 1% of the Swiss population is affected by the long-term consequences of COVID-19, and this proportion is likely to be multiple times higher. The prevalence is expected to remain at a high level also in the future.
期刊介绍:
International Journal of Infectious Diseases (IJID)
Publisher: International Society for Infectious Diseases
Publication Frequency: Monthly
Type: Peer-reviewed, Open Access
Scope:
Publishes original clinical and laboratory-based research.
Reports clinical trials, reviews, and some case reports.
Focuses on epidemiology, clinical diagnosis, treatment, and control of infectious diseases.
Emphasizes diseases common in under-resourced countries.