Potential public health impact of the adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccine in adults aged 60 years and older: results from a modeling study in India and Southeast Asia.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) can cause acute respiratory infection (ARI) and severe symptoms in adults ≥60 years. The adjuvanted RSV prefusion F protein vaccine (adjuvanted RSVPreF3) offers protection to adults against RSV ARI and RSV lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD). We modeled the burden of RSV among adults ≥60 years in India and Southeast Asia, and the potential impact of RSV vaccination.

Methods: A Markov model was adapted to the settings of India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. RSV ARI cases, LRTD-associated hospitalizations, pneumonia, and deaths were tallied over a five-year period. Impact of adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccination with 30% and 70% coverage was assessed by calculation of incremental differences versus no vaccination.

Results: A total of 73.9 million RSV ARI were projected to occur in adults ≥60 years living in the selected countries. Numbers of hospitalizations, pneumonia, and deaths were approximately 3.1 million, 2.9 million, and 294,000, respectively. Adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccination with a 30% coverage could prevent 8.6 million RSV ARI, 460,255 hospitalizations, 423,659 pneumonia, and 43,693 deaths over 5 years.

Conclusions: The projected burden of RSV was substantial in India and Southeast Asia, and could greatly be alleviated through adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccination of adults ≥60 years.