大规模接种疫苗对高传染性流行病的不利影响

IF 2.8 3区物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI:10.1016/j.physa.2025.130722

Yinzuo Zhou , Yihan Liu , Xiyun Zhang , Jie Zhou

{"title":"大规模接种疫苗对高传染性流行病的不利影响","authors":"Yinzuo Zhou , Yihan Liu , Xiyun Zhang , Jie Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130722","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we consider highly transmissible epidemics that incorporate a finite immunity period. Under the conditions where: (i) vaccines are partially effective, and (ii) hospital resources are limited, we find that large-scale vaccination may, however, lead to more cumulative infections as compared to small-scale vaccination. We demonstrate that the non-Markovian feature of the epidemic model plays an important role of this counterintuitive phenomenon, and we develop an approach to predict the thresholds of the epidemic process using a set of recurrent equations. Our findings may provide useful insights for administrative measures when encountering highly transmissible epidemics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20152,"journal":{"name":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","volume":"674 ","pages":"Article 130722"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The adverse effects of large-scale vaccination on highly transmissible epidemics\",\"authors\":\"Yinzuo Zhou , Yihan Liu , Xiyun Zhang , Jie Zhou\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.physa.2025.130722\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>In this paper, we consider highly transmissible epidemics that incorporate a finite immunity period. Under the conditions where: (i) vaccines are partially effective, and (ii) hospital resources are limited, we find that large-scale vaccination may, however, lead to more cumulative infections as compared to small-scale vaccination. We demonstrate that the non-Markovian feature of the epidemic model plays an important role of this counterintuitive phenomenon, and we develop an approach to predict the thresholds of the epidemic process using a set of recurrent equations. Our findings may provide useful insights for administrative measures when encountering highly transmissible epidemics.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":20152,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications\",\"volume\":\"674 \",\"pages\":\"Article 130722\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"101\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437125003747\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"物理与天体物理\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437125003747","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

在本文中，我们考虑具有有限免疫期的高传染性流行病。在以下情况下：(i)疫苗部分有效，（ii）医院资源有限，然而，我们发现，与小规模疫苗接种相比，大规模疫苗接种可能导致更多的累积感染。我们证明了流行病模型的非马尔可夫特征在这种反直觉现象中起着重要作用，并且我们开发了一种使用一组循环方程来预测流行病过程阈值的方法。我们的发现可能为在遇到高传染性流行病时采取行政措施提供有用的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

The adverse effects of large-scale vaccination on highly transmissible epidemics

In this paper, we consider highly transmissible epidemics that incorporate a finite immunity period. Under the conditions where: (i) vaccines are partially effective, and (ii) hospital resources are limited, we find that large-scale vaccination may, however, lead to more cumulative infections as compared to small-scale vaccination. We demonstrate that the non-Markovian feature of the epidemic model plays an important role of this counterintuitive phenomenon, and we develop an approach to predict the thresholds of the epidemic process using a set of recurrent equations. Our findings may provide useful insights for administrative measures when encountering highly transmissible epidemics.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 物理-物理：综合

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

9.10%

发文量

852

审稿时长

6.6 months

期刊介绍： Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications Recognized by the European Physical Society Physica A publishes research in the field of statistical mechanics and its applications. Statistical mechanics sets out to explain the behaviour of macroscopic systems by studying the statistical properties of their microscopic constituents. Applications of the techniques of statistical mechanics are widespread, and include: applications to physical systems such as solids, liquids and gases; applications to chemical and biological systems (colloids, interfaces, complex fluids, polymers and biopolymers, cell physics); and other interdisciplinary applications to for instance biological, economical and sociological systems.