Zhengyuan Zhao , Bojie Fu , Yihe Lü , Ting Li , Yuelu Wang , Haoyue Wang , Binbin Huang , Xing Wu
{"title":"中等保护情景下2000 - 2050年青藏高原社会生态系统脆弱性持续降低","authors":"Zhengyuan Zhao , Bojie Fu , Yihe Lü , Ting Li , Yuelu Wang , Haoyue Wang , Binbin Huang , Xing Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108055","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The intensifying interactions and pressures within socio-ecological systems (SESs) have precipitated a convergence of multifaceted challenges in recent decades, including environmental degradation and imbalanced socioeconomic development. Despite the critical importance of vulnerability assessments in informing climate preparedness strategies and formulating adaptive governance frameworks, limited scholarly attention has been directed toward comprehensive assessments of socio-ecological system vulnerability (SEV) through an integrated SES perspective across both historical baselines and future climate projections. To address this, we developed an integrative assessment framework for SEV and explored the spatiotemporal dynamics of SEV across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) from 2000 to 2020. Random forest models were employed to project vulnerability trajectories under three future scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP3–7.0) spanning 2030–2050. Our geospatial analyses revealed a distinct latitudinal gradient in SEV distribution across the QTP, with vulnerability levels progressively increasing from the southeastern high-vegetation regions to the northwestern arid zones under both historical conditions and modeled future scenarios. Temporally, the study period witnessed a 1.38 % reduction in aggregate vulnerability, particularly evident in the eastern region. Forward projections indicate accelerated vulnerability mitigation across all scenarios, with the SSP2–4.5 moderate climate trajectory demonstrating optimal outcomes - extreme vulnerability areas are projected to diminish to 12.66 % by 2050, representing a 9.26 % reduction from 2020 baseline levels, while maintaining consistent downward trends throughout the projection window. This methodological innovation provides a transferable framework for regional-scale SEV quantification, enabling evidence-based policymaking for SES management. The scenario-specific vulnerability projections offer critical insights for optimizing disaster risk reduction strategies and enhancing climate adaptation pathways, particularly crucial for high-altitude ecosystems facing accelerated warming trends. Our findings underscore the synergistic potential of integrated ecological conservation measures and sustainable development initiatives in mitigating socio-ecological risks under evolving climate regimes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":309,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 108055"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Continuous reduction in socio-ecological system vulnerability on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2050 under an intermediate protection scenario\",\"authors\":\"Zhengyuan Zhao , Bojie Fu , Yihe Lü , Ting Li , Yuelu Wang , Haoyue Wang , Binbin Huang , Xing Wu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108055\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>The intensifying interactions and pressures within socio-ecological systems (SESs) have precipitated a convergence of multifaceted challenges in recent decades, including environmental degradation and imbalanced socioeconomic development. Despite the critical importance of vulnerability assessments in informing climate preparedness strategies and formulating adaptive governance frameworks, limited scholarly attention has been directed toward comprehensive assessments of socio-ecological system vulnerability (SEV) through an integrated SES perspective across both historical baselines and future climate projections. To address this, we developed an integrative assessment framework for SEV and explored the spatiotemporal dynamics of SEV across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) from 2000 to 2020. Random forest models were employed to project vulnerability trajectories under three future scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP3–7.0) spanning 2030–2050. Our geospatial analyses revealed a distinct latitudinal gradient in SEV distribution across the QTP, with vulnerability levels progressively increasing from the southeastern high-vegetation regions to the northwestern arid zones under both historical conditions and modeled future scenarios. Temporally, the study period witnessed a 1.38 % reduction in aggregate vulnerability, particularly evident in the eastern region. Forward projections indicate accelerated vulnerability mitigation across all scenarios, with the SSP2–4.5 moderate climate trajectory demonstrating optimal outcomes - extreme vulnerability areas are projected to diminish to 12.66 % by 2050, representing a 9.26 % reduction from 2020 baseline levels, while maintaining consistent downward trends throughout the projection window. This methodological innovation provides a transferable framework for regional-scale SEV quantification, enabling evidence-based policymaking for SES management. The scenario-specific vulnerability projections offer critical insights for optimizing disaster risk reduction strategies and enhancing climate adaptation pathways, particularly crucial for high-altitude ecosystems facing accelerated warming trends. Our findings underscore the synergistic potential of integrated ecological conservation measures and sustainable development initiatives in mitigating socio-ecological risks under evolving climate regimes.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":309,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Environmental Impact Assessment Review\",\"volume\":\"115 \",\"pages\":\"Article 108055\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":9.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Environmental Impact Assessment Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925525002525\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925525002525","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Continuous reduction in socio-ecological system vulnerability on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2050 under an intermediate protection scenario
The intensifying interactions and pressures within socio-ecological systems (SESs) have precipitated a convergence of multifaceted challenges in recent decades, including environmental degradation and imbalanced socioeconomic development. Despite the critical importance of vulnerability assessments in informing climate preparedness strategies and formulating adaptive governance frameworks, limited scholarly attention has been directed toward comprehensive assessments of socio-ecological system vulnerability (SEV) through an integrated SES perspective across both historical baselines and future climate projections. To address this, we developed an integrative assessment framework for SEV and explored the spatiotemporal dynamics of SEV across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) from 2000 to 2020. Random forest models were employed to project vulnerability trajectories under three future scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP3–7.0) spanning 2030–2050. Our geospatial analyses revealed a distinct latitudinal gradient in SEV distribution across the QTP, with vulnerability levels progressively increasing from the southeastern high-vegetation regions to the northwestern arid zones under both historical conditions and modeled future scenarios. Temporally, the study period witnessed a 1.38 % reduction in aggregate vulnerability, particularly evident in the eastern region. Forward projections indicate accelerated vulnerability mitigation across all scenarios, with the SSP2–4.5 moderate climate trajectory demonstrating optimal outcomes - extreme vulnerability areas are projected to diminish to 12.66 % by 2050, representing a 9.26 % reduction from 2020 baseline levels, while maintaining consistent downward trends throughout the projection window. This methodological innovation provides a transferable framework for regional-scale SEV quantification, enabling evidence-based policymaking for SES management. The scenario-specific vulnerability projections offer critical insights for optimizing disaster risk reduction strategies and enhancing climate adaptation pathways, particularly crucial for high-altitude ecosystems facing accelerated warming trends. Our findings underscore the synergistic potential of integrated ecological conservation measures and sustainable development initiatives in mitigating socio-ecological risks under evolving climate regimes.
期刊介绍:
Environmental Impact Assessment Review is an interdisciplinary journal that serves a global audience of practitioners, policymakers, and academics involved in assessing the environmental impact of policies, projects, processes, and products. The journal focuses on innovative theory and practice in environmental impact assessment (EIA). Papers are expected to present innovative ideas, be topical, and coherent. The journal emphasizes concepts, methods, techniques, approaches, and systems related to EIA theory and practice.