Integrated analysis of the market diffusion of battery electric passenger cars and motorcycles in emerging markets: An agent-based modeling approach

Battery electric vehicles (BEV) offer a promising pathway to decarbonizing transportation. However, existing studies have primarily focused on BEV passenger cars while overlooking motorcycles and the interplay between these modes, an omission that is critical in emerging markets. This research addresses this gap by examining the BEV market diffusion of both vehicle types in an integrated framework, utilizing an agent-based model that involves monetary factors, infrastructure availability, consumer preferences, and local socioeconomic conditions. Applying the model to the Greater Jakarta Area, a metropolitan city in an emerging market, the results indicate that robust policy measures could boost the diffusion of both BEV passenger cars and motorcycles to approximately 82 % of the total vehicle stock by 2050. BEV passenger cars may achieve price parity as early as 2024, whereas BEV motorcycles are expected to follow in 2026. Consumer preferences and infrastructure availability are critical to BEV diffusion, especially for electric motorcycles. In addition, total motorcycle stocks are projected to decline after 2036 due to the potential mode shift to passenger cars as socioeconomic conditions improve. Overall, strong supports on both BEV types' uptake could lower transport-sector greenhouse-gas emissions by up to 65 % by 2050.