预测耳廓假性囊肿术后复发:关键因素及危险模型。

IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q3 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
American journal of translational research Pub Date : 2025-05-15 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.62347/UDCK5613
Guoling Zou, Chuandao Zeng, Chenyang Li, Wei Hu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的:探讨影响耳廓假性囊肿术后复发的因素,应用logistic回归和Cox回归分析建立耳廓假性囊肿复发风险预测模型。方法:本回顾性研究分析2015年1月至2022年12月215例耳廓假性囊肿手术治疗患者的临床资料。单因素分析确定了与复发相关的因素,并使用多因素logistic回归和Cox回归进一步评估。构建递归预测模型,并利用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线和曲线下面积(AUC)值评价其预测性能。结果:单因素分析发现年龄、囊肿大小、手术入路、术后辅助治疗是影响耳廓假性囊肿术后复发的重要因素(p结论:年龄、囊肿大小、手术入路、术后辅助治疗是影响耳廓假性囊肿术后复发的关键因素。基于logistic回归和Cox回归的复发预测模型在预测短期复发方面具有较高的效率,可以指导术后管理策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Predicting postoperative recurrence of auricular pseudocyst: key factors and risk models.

Objective: To investigate the factors influencing postoperative recurrence of auricular pseudocysts and to develop recurrence risk prediction models using logistic regression and Cox regression analyses.

Methods: This retrospective study analyzed clinical data from 215 patients who underwent surgical treatment for auricular pseudocysts between January 2015 and December 2022. Univariate analysis identified factors associated with recurrence, which were further assessed using multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression. Recurrence prediction models were constructed, and their predictive performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) values.

Results: Univariate analysis identified age, cyst size, surgical approach, and postoperative adjuvant therapy as significant factors associated with postoperative recurrence (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression identified age <53.5 years, cyst size <2.5 cm, fenestration surgery, and absence of postoperative adjuvant therapy as protective factors against recurrence (P<0.05). The constructed models showed stable AUC values for 90-day and 120-day predictions (AUC = 0.718). No significant difference in predictive performance was observed between logistic regression and Cox regression models for 6-month recurrence risk (P = 0.934).

Conclusion: Age, cyst size, surgical approach, and postoperative adjuvant therapy are critical factors influencing postoperative recurrence of auricular pseudocysts. The recurrence prediction models based on logistic regression and Cox regression demonstrate high efficiency in predicting short-term recurrence and can guide postoperative management strategies.

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来源期刊
American journal of translational research
American journal of translational research ONCOLOGY-MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
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