The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on bus crash severity

Recent research highlights significant shifts in travel patterns, traffic volumes, and safety measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Early findings suggest a nationwide decrease in crashes (22.0%) and injuries (16.7%) in 2020 compared to 2019 in the United States, but a concurrent increase in fatalities (6.8%) and severe injuries. The fatality rate persisted in 2021, with more than 10.5% increase from 2020 to 2021. Most collision research conducted after COVID-19 has focused on crashes involving private vehicles, leaving transit-related crashes less understood. Method: To fill this gap, an analysis was conducted on a sample of bus collisions in Portland, Oregon using crash data from 2018 to 2023. The aim of the study was to identify contributing risk factors to bus crashes before and after the COVID-19 lockdown’s initiation. An in-depth analysis was conducted on a wide range of data including: injury extent, human factors, road network characteristics, driving maneuver, weather, location, traffic control devices, time of day, and other variables. Factor Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling were used to extract key features and significant patterns. Results: The study identified three main risk factors related to crash severity: “Human Factors,” “Road Network Conditions,” and “Vehicle Movement and Impact Type.” Human factors involving bus operators did not show a significant correlation with crash severity, thus further research is required to encompass all parties involved in crashes. Two other factors (i.e., “road network conditions” and “vehicle movement and impact type”) align with existing literature, emphasizing the need to develop targeted mitigation strategies and safety measures tailored to specific locations and characteristics. Conclusions and practical applications: This study shows the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on bus crash frequency, rates, and severity, shedding light on the relationship between social disruptions and crashes within transit bus systems.