Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of Arctic shipping black carbon emissions based on AIS data 2016 to 2022

The rapid expansion of Arctic shipping has heightened concerns regarding its environmental impact, particularly the climate and ecological effects of black carbon (BC) emissions. Accurate quantification and a comprehensive understanding of Arctic shipping BC emission trends are essential for formulating effective mitigation policies. This study utilizes Automatic Identification System (AIS) trajectory data from 2016 to 2022 and applies a bottom-up approach to refine BC emission estimates from Arctic shipping. The analysis covers emissions across various operational states, 14 ship types, different fuel categories, and spatial distribution patterns, and predicts the 2030 and 2050 emission trends of 40 types under the global shipping shift and global route not shifted assumptions. The results show that from 2016 to 2022, the total BC emissions from Arctic shipping increased from 278.97 tons to 499.42 tons, an increase of 79.02 %. At the same time, the emissions showed obvious seasonal characteristics, with the highest emissions in summer (June to August) and the annual peak in August. In addition, Gas tankers、Fishing vessels、Cruise ships、Crude Oil tankers、Passenger ships and Bulk carriers are the six types of ships with the largest emissions (accounting for 81.29 % in 2022). From the perspective of spatial distribution, BC emissions are mainly concentrated in key shipping areas such as the Barents Sea, Kara Sea, Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea, and Davis Strait, and the scope shows a trend of expansion year by year. Furthermore, the emission forecast results show that if the “HFO (Heavy fuel oil) Ban” is implemented and the fuel is switched to MGO/MDO (Marine gas oils/Marine diesel oil), Arctic shipping BC emissions are expected to be 476.82–9157.25 tons in 2050. However, if cleaner fuels (such as liquefied natural gas LNG) are used, BC emissions can be significantly reduced, which is expected to be an effective path to achieve emission reduction targets. Finally, the model test results show that if the omission of ships in AIS data is taken into account, the total BC emissions in the Arctic can reach 1.54–1.95 times the estimated value, and fishing vessels are the main source of uncertainty.