{"title":"三大洲多发性骨髓瘤的长期趋势和预测：中国、美国、俄罗斯联邦、英国和法国的比较研究（1990-2036）","authors":"Huiqiang Wu, Zhiyin Cai, Wanyi Liu, Zechuan Wang, Baoying Qiu, Weihui Liu, Weihuang Zhuang","doi":"10.1002/cam4.70999","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Objectives</h3>\n \n <p>The objective of this study was to analyse trends in the burden of multiple myeloma (MM) in the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England, and France) to understand country differences and factors.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 was utilised to analyse the incidence and mortality trends of MM from 1990 to 2021. An age-period-cohort model was employed to evaluate the disparities among nations, while an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast the impending developments over the subsequent 15 years.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>The study found the burden of MM continues to increase in China and the Russian Federation, with significant increases particularly in older age groups. In the United States of America, age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardised death rates (ASDR) showed a downward trend, reflecting a reduction in the burden of disease. In England and France, ASIR increased overall, but ASDR remained stable. The burden of MM was found to be significantly correlated with age, period effect, and birth cohort through age-period-cohort analysis. The ARIMA model predictions indicated an increasing trend in ASIR and a stable ASDR in China and the Russian Federation, while in England, France, and the United States of America, there was an overall stabilisation of ASIR and ASDR.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>Significant differences in the burden of MM were found among the five countries. China and the Russian Federation are facing an increasing MM burden, particularly in older age groups, while the United States of America, England and France have made progress through early screening and treatment. The study suggests focusing on older populations, promoting early diagnosis and personalised treatment, and addressing lifestyle and environmental factors. Future research should examine risk factors across countries to inform public health policy.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":139,"journal":{"name":"Cancer Medicine","volume":"14 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/cam4.70999","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Long-Term Trends and Projections of Multiple Myeloma Across Three Continents: A Comparative Study of China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England and France (1990–2036)\",\"authors\":\"Huiqiang Wu, Zhiyin Cai, Wanyi Liu, Zechuan Wang, Baoying Qiu, Weihui Liu, Weihuang Zhuang\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/cam4.70999\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Objectives</h3>\\n \\n <p>The objective of this study was to analyse trends in the burden of multiple myeloma (MM) in the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England, and France) to understand country differences and factors.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Methods</h3>\\n \\n <p>The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 was utilised to analyse the incidence and mortality trends of MM from 1990 to 2021. An age-period-cohort model was employed to evaluate the disparities among nations, while an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast the impending developments over the subsequent 15 years.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Results</h3>\\n \\n <p>The study found the burden of MM continues to increase in China and the Russian Federation, with significant increases particularly in older age groups. In the United States of America, age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardised death rates (ASDR) showed a downward trend, reflecting a reduction in the burden of disease. In England and France, ASIR increased overall, but ASDR remained stable. The burden of MM was found to be significantly correlated with age, period effect, and birth cohort through age-period-cohort analysis. The ARIMA model predictions indicated an increasing trend in ASIR and a stable ASDR in China and the Russian Federation, while in England, France, and the United States of America, there was an overall stabilisation of ASIR and ASDR.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\\n \\n <p>Significant differences in the burden of MM were found among the five countries. China and the Russian Federation are facing an increasing MM burden, particularly in older age groups, while the United States of America, England and France have made progress through early screening and treatment. The study suggests focusing on older populations, promoting early diagnosis and personalised treatment, and addressing lifestyle and environmental factors. Future research should examine risk factors across countries to inform public health policy.</p>\\n </section>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":139,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Cancer Medicine\",\"volume\":\"14 12\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/cam4.70999\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Cancer Medicine\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cam4.70999\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ONCOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cancer Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cam4.70999","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Long-Term Trends and Projections of Multiple Myeloma Across Three Continents: A Comparative Study of China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England and France (1990–2036)
Objectives
The objective of this study was to analyse trends in the burden of multiple myeloma (MM) in the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England, and France) to understand country differences and factors.
Methods
The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 was utilised to analyse the incidence and mortality trends of MM from 1990 to 2021. An age-period-cohort model was employed to evaluate the disparities among nations, while an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast the impending developments over the subsequent 15 years.
Results
The study found the burden of MM continues to increase in China and the Russian Federation, with significant increases particularly in older age groups. In the United States of America, age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardised death rates (ASDR) showed a downward trend, reflecting a reduction in the burden of disease. In England and France, ASIR increased overall, but ASDR remained stable. The burden of MM was found to be significantly correlated with age, period effect, and birth cohort through age-period-cohort analysis. The ARIMA model predictions indicated an increasing trend in ASIR and a stable ASDR in China and the Russian Federation, while in England, France, and the United States of America, there was an overall stabilisation of ASIR and ASDR.
Conclusions
Significant differences in the burden of MM were found among the five countries. China and the Russian Federation are facing an increasing MM burden, particularly in older age groups, while the United States of America, England and France have made progress through early screening and treatment. The study suggests focusing on older populations, promoting early diagnosis and personalised treatment, and addressing lifestyle and environmental factors. Future research should examine risk factors across countries to inform public health policy.
期刊介绍：
Cancer Medicine is a peer-reviewed, open access, interdisciplinary journal providing rapid publication of research from global biomedical researchers across the cancer sciences. The journal will consider submissions from all oncologic specialties, including, but not limited to, the following areas:
Clinical Cancer Research
Translational research ∙ clinical trials ∙ chemotherapy ∙ radiation therapy ∙ surgical therapy ∙ clinical observations ∙ clinical guidelines ∙ genetic consultation ∙ ethical considerations
Cancer Biology:
Molecular biology ∙ cellular biology ∙ molecular genetics ∙ genomics ∙ immunology ∙ epigenetics ∙ metabolic studies ∙ proteomics ∙ cytopathology ∙ carcinogenesis ∙ drug discovery and delivery.
Cancer Prevention:
Behavioral science ∙ psychosocial studies ∙ screening ∙ nutrition ∙ epidemiology and prevention ∙ community outreach.
Bioinformatics:
Gene expressions profiles ∙ gene regulation networks ∙ genome bioinformatics ∙ pathwayanalysis ∙ prognostic biomarkers.
Cancer Medicine publishes original research articles, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and research methods papers, along with invited editorials and commentaries. Original research papers must report well-conducted research with conclusions supported by the data presented in the paper.
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