{"title":"髋部骨折后一年死亡风险的图。","authors":"Jiale Guo, Liuyang Shi, Kehai Shi, Ru Dai, Jian Wang, Yehai Li","doi":"10.3389/fmed.2025.1500049","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Hip fractures are catastrophic events with a significant risk of mortality, making early identification of high-risk patients crucial. While previous studies have primarily focused on post-surgical mortality in hip fracture patients, less attention has been given to those who did not undergo surgery. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict 1-year mortality in older adults following hip fractures.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Patients hospitalized with hip fractures at a university hospital between May 2016 and December 2021 were included. Participants were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts (70:30 ratio). After selecting key variables, the nomogram was constructed, and its performance was evaluated in both cohorts.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 619 patients were included, with 136 (21.97%) experiencing mortality within one year. LASSO regression was used to account for multicollinearity, selecting variables such as age, coronary heart disease, surgery, hemoglobin, aspartate transaminase, and blood urea nitrogen. The nomogram achieved AUCs of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78-0.88) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73-0.89) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, demonstrating excellent calibration and clinical utility.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The nomogram effectively predict 1-year mortality risk in older adults following hip fractures.</p>","PeriodicalId":12488,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Medicine","volume":"12 ","pages":"1500049"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12162923/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A nomogram for one-year risk of death after hip fracture.\",\"authors\":\"Jiale Guo, Liuyang Shi, Kehai Shi, Ru Dai, Jian Wang, Yehai Li\",\"doi\":\"10.3389/fmed.2025.1500049\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Hip fractures are catastrophic events with a significant risk of mortality, making early identification of high-risk patients crucial. While previous studies have primarily focused on post-surgical mortality in hip fracture patients, less attention has been given to those who did not undergo surgery. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict 1-year mortality in older adults following hip fractures.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Patients hospitalized with hip fractures at a university hospital between May 2016 and December 2021 were included. Participants were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts (70:30 ratio). After selecting key variables, the nomogram was constructed, and its performance was evaluated in both cohorts.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 619 patients were included, with 136 (21.97%) experiencing mortality within one year. LASSO regression was used to account for multicollinearity, selecting variables such as age, coronary heart disease, surgery, hemoglobin, aspartate transaminase, and blood urea nitrogen. The nomogram achieved AUCs of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78-0.88) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73-0.89) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, demonstrating excellent calibration and clinical utility.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The nomogram effectively predict 1-year mortality risk in older adults following hip fractures.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12488,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Frontiers in Medicine\",\"volume\":\"12 \",\"pages\":\"1500049\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12162923/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Frontiers in Medicine\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2025.1500049\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Frontiers in Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2025.1500049","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
A nomogram for one-year risk of death after hip fracture.
Background: Hip fractures are catastrophic events with a significant risk of mortality, making early identification of high-risk patients crucial. While previous studies have primarily focused on post-surgical mortality in hip fracture patients, less attention has been given to those who did not undergo surgery. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict 1-year mortality in older adults following hip fractures.
Methods: Patients hospitalized with hip fractures at a university hospital between May 2016 and December 2021 were included. Participants were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts (70:30 ratio). After selecting key variables, the nomogram was constructed, and its performance was evaluated in both cohorts.
Results: A total of 619 patients were included, with 136 (21.97%) experiencing mortality within one year. LASSO regression was used to account for multicollinearity, selecting variables such as age, coronary heart disease, surgery, hemoglobin, aspartate transaminase, and blood urea nitrogen. The nomogram achieved AUCs of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78-0.88) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73-0.89) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, demonstrating excellent calibration and clinical utility.
Conclusion: The nomogram effectively predict 1-year mortality risk in older adults following hip fractures.
期刊介绍：
Frontiers in Medicine publishes rigorously peer-reviewed research linking basic research to clinical practice and patient care, as well as translating scientific advances into new therapies and diagnostic tools. Led by an outstanding Editorial Board of international experts, this multidisciplinary open-access journal is at the forefront of disseminating and communicating scientific knowledge and impactful discoveries to researchers, academics, clinicians and the public worldwide.
In addition to papers that provide a link between basic research and clinical practice, a particular emphasis is given to studies that are directly relevant to patient care. In this spirit, the journal publishes the latest research results and medical knowledge that facilitate the translation of scientific advances into new therapies or diagnostic tools. The full listing of the Specialty Sections represented by Frontiers in Medicine is as listed below. As well as the established medical disciplines, Frontiers in Medicine is launching new sections that together will facilitate
- the use of patient-reported outcomes under real world conditions
- the exploitation of big data and the use of novel information and communication tools in the assessment of new medicines
- the scientific bases for guidelines and decisions from regulatory authorities
- access to medicinal products and medical devices worldwide
- addressing the grand health challenges around the world
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