Carbon decoupling and drivers decomposition under the carbon neutrality target: Evidence from county-level cities in China

Addressing urban carbon emissions in China is crucial for achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. This study explores the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in China’s county-level cities, identifies key drivers of carbon emissions, and projects future emission scenarios under a carbon-neutral framework. The analysis reveals a shift from weak to strong decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions in China’s county-level cities. The findings highlight the significance of economic development and energy consumption intensity as major driving factors, particularly in industries such as heavy manufacturing, integrated services, and energy-intensive sectors prevalent in county-level cities. Furthermore, this study predicts a transition from weak to strong decoupling, emphasizing the role of energy consumption intensity as the primary driving factor for future carbon emissions. These insights are instrumental in formulating urban carbon reduction policies and promoting the adoption of low-carbon technologies to achieve urban carbon neutrality goals.