年代际太平洋涛动驱动的太平洋Walker环流对过去500年华北季风边缘区降水变率的影响

IF 4 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104913

Xiaoen Zhao , Mao Hu , Feng Chen , Shijie Wang , Tiyuan Hou

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引用次数: 0

摘要

亚洲夏季风系统对华北地区的生态环境和社会经济发展产生了重大影响。在人为变暖的背景下，理解季风降水的变率及其潜在驱动因素需要发展超出仪器记录的高分辨率降水重建。本文研究了华北季风边缘区（NCMMR） 12个年代学站点的869个树轮网络。采用嵌套主成分回归模型重建1512 - 2021年8 - 7月降水变率。结果表明，与前5个世纪相比，在当前变暖期（CWP, 1850-2021），极端高降水和极端低降水事件的概率分别增加了~ 9%和~ 2%，长期平均降水量为465.39 mm。CWP期间降水的标准差和变异系数（分别为48.24 mm和10.36%）超过了历史时期（1512-1849）的标准差和变异系数（分别为36.89 mm和8.07%），凸显了降水随时间变化的增加。对全球海表温度模式的分析揭示了降水与年代际太平洋涛动（IPO）之间的强烈联系。降水与IPO指数呈显著负相关(P <；0.001)，以及IPO对降水变异性的重大贡献（占已解释方差的25%）。此外，降水与太平洋沃克环流（PWC）指数(P <；0.001)。气候模式模拟进一步表明，ipo驱动的PWC强度变化利用水汽输送异常调节了NCMMR的年代际降水变率。

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Impact of Pacific Walker Circulation driven by Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on precipitation variability in the North China Monsoon Marginal Region over the past five centuries

The Asian Summer Monsoon system has exerted significant impact on the ecological environment and socio-economic development of North China. Understanding the variability of monsoon precipitation and its underlying drivers in the context of anthropogenic warming necessitates the development of high-resolution precipitation reconstructions extending beyond the instrumental record. This study presents a novel tree ring network comprising 869 cores from 12 site chronologies in the North China Monsoon Marginal Region (NCMMR). A Nested Principal Component Regression model is used to reconstruct August-to-July precipitation variability from 1512 to 2021. The results indicate that, compared to the preceding five centuries, the probability of extreme high and low precipitation events increased by ∼9 % and ∼ 2 %, respectively, during the Current Warming Period (CWP, 1850–2021), with a higher long-term mean precipitation of 465.39 mm. The standard deviation and coefficient of variation for precipitation during the CWP (48.24 mm and 10.36 %, respectively) exceed those of the Historical Period (1512–1849) (36.89 mm and 8.07 %, respectively), highlighting an increase in precipitation variability over time. Analysis of global sea surface temperature patterns reveals a strong linkage between precipitation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). This is supported by a significant negative correlation between precipitation and the IPO index (P < 0.001), alongside the IPO's substantial contribution (25 % of explained variance) to precipitation variability. Additionally, precipitation exhibits a significant positive correlation with the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) index (P < 0.001). Climate model simulations further demonstrate that IPO-driven variations in PWC intensity regulate interdecadal precipitation variability in the NCMMR using water vapor transport anomalies.

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来源期刊

Global and Planetary Change 地学天文-地球科学综合

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

10.30%

发文量

226

审稿时长

63 days

期刊介绍： The objective of the journal Global and Planetary Change is to provide a multi-disciplinary overview of the processes taking place in the Earth System and involved in planetary change over time. The journal focuses on records of the past and current state of the earth system, and future scenarios , and their link to global environmental change. Regional or process-oriented studies are welcome if they discuss global implications. Topics include, but are not limited to, changes in the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, as well as climate change, sea level variation, observations/modelling of Earth processes from deep to (near-)surface and their coupling, global ecology, biogeography and the resilience/thresholds in ecosystems. Key criteria for the consideration of manuscripts are (a) the relevance for the global scientific community and/or (b) the wider implications for global scale problems, preferably combined with (c) having a significance beyond a single discipline. A clear focus on key processes associated with planetary scale change is strongly encouraged. Manuscripts can be submitted as either research contributions or as a review article. Every effort should be made towards the presentation of research outcomes in an understandable way for a broad readership.