Nanyu Zhao, Hong Yan, Ge Shi, Fan Luo, Tao Han, Chengcheng Liu, John Dodson
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引用次数: 0
摘要
气候变化对热带气旋(TCs)的影响仍然是一个关键问题,但由于仪器记录较短和史前数据分辨率较低,人们的理解受到限制。本文利用南海北部一个距今约3ka BP的砗磲壳化石的12年生长速率记录,首次获得了用于研究史前TC活动的日分辨率代理数据。通过分析代理数据中的时间模式,我们得出了月度TC频率估计。NSCS现代TC频率在秋季(9 - 10月)达到峰值,而3 ka BP的TC在夏季(6 - 7 - 8月)出现频率更高,约为15%。结合古气候记录,认为这种季节变化和频率增加可能与热带辐合带的相对北移有关,为TC的形成和发展提供了有利条件。我们的研究结果表明,未来的变暖将导致NSCS的TC季节提前和TC频率增加。
Prehistoric shifts in tropical cyclone season in the South China sea: evidence from daily resolution records of giant clam shells
The impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) remains a critical concern, but understanding is limited by short instrumental records and low-resolution prehistoric data. Here, we present the first daily-resolution proxy data for investigating prehistoric TC activity, using a 12-year growth rate record of a fossil Tridacna shell (circa 3 ka BP) from the northern South China Sea (NSCS). By analyzing temporal patterns in the proxy data, we derived monthly TC frequency estimates. While modern TC frequency in the NSCS peaks in autumn (September–October), our results showed that TCs at 3 ka BP occurred more frequently in summer (June–July–August), with approximately 15% higher frequency than present. Combined with paleoclimate records, we suggested that this seasonal shift and increased frequency were likely linked to the relatively northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which provided favourable conditions for TC formation and development. Our findings imply that future warming would contribute to earlier TC seasons and increased TC frequency in the NSCS.
期刊介绍:
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols.
The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.