Radiation Doses and Lifetime Attributable Risk of Cancer in Sweden after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

Abstract: Methods for estimating radiological consequences in terms of radiation doses and cancer risks are needed for informed decisions on mitigation efforts after a radionuclide event. The 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident fallout in Sweden was used as a case study. Open-source data on annual sex-specific population data in 1-y classes by municipality (n = 290), counties (n = 21), and future projection were retrieved from Statistics Sweden from 1986 to 2035. Published organ dose coefficients, cancer risk coefficients, and established methods for dose calculations and cancer risk projections were applied to estimate organ absorbed doses (mGy), effective dose (mSv), collective dose (person-Sv), and lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Due to the geographically variable Chernobyl fallout in Sweden, the variability in absorbed organ doses was greater between municipalities and counties than between organs or sexes. LAR was translated into 377 male and 448 female extra cancer cases over 50 y post-Chernobyl. Overall, 38% of these cancer cases could be attributed to the internal dose in males and 32% in females. The highest number of cancer cases was estimated for Västernorrland county, with only 3% of the Swedish population in 1986, but 18% of the excess cancer cases 1986 to 2035. The collective dose was calculated to 6,028 person-Sv, whereas 2,148 person-Sv (36%) was internal dose. Like for LAR, the population of Västernorrland county got 18% of the total collective dose. The excess number of cancer cases derived from LAR and collective dose gave similar results. Our methods can be adopted to other countries and different fallout scenarios.