Identifying High-Risk Areas for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Mortality in Guangdong, China: Spatiotemporal Clustering and Socioenvironmental Determinants.

Objective: This study aimed to identify high-risk areas for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) mortality to provide relevant evidence for interventions in emerging economies.

Methods: Empirical Bayesian Kriging and a discrete Poisson space-time scan statistic were applied to identify the spatiotemporal clusters of T2DM mortality. The relationships between economic factors, air pollutants, and the mortality risk of T2DM were assessed using regression analysis and the Poisson Log-linear Model.

Results: A coastal district in East Guangdong, China, had the highest risk (Relative Risk [RR] = 4.58, P < 0.01), followed by the 10 coastal districts/counties in West Guangdong, China (RR = 2.88, P < 0.01). The coastal county in the Pearl River Delta, China (RR = 2.24, P < 0.01), had the third-highest risk. The remaining risk areas were two coastal counties in East Guangdong, 16 districts/counties in the Pearl River Delta, and two counties in North Guangdong, China. Mortality due to T2DM was associated with gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita). In pilot assessments, T2DM mortality was significantly associated with carbon monoxide.

Conclusion: High mortality from T2DM occurred in the coastal areas of East and West Guangdong, especially where the economy was progressing towards the upper middle-income level.