在气候风险时期重新考虑数字革命在公共部门的作用:来自面板自回归模型的新见解

IF 13.3 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS
Le Thanh Ha
{"title":"在气候风险时期重新考虑数字革命在公共部门的作用:来自面板自回归模型的新见解","authors":"Le Thanh Ha","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124243","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the dynamic relationship between digital public services and climate risks alongside factors like economic growth and trade share. The study uses a Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model with a dataset of 27 European countries. The findings indicate that climate risks initially hinder the development of digital public services, likely due to infrastructure damage and disruptions caused by extreme weather events. However, in the subsequent years, a positive correlation emerged, suggesting that governments increasingly recognize the importance of robust digital infrastructure in mitigating the adverse effects of climate risks and enhancing resilience. Additionally, economic growth demonstrates a delayed positive impact on digital public services, whereas trade share exhibits a more immediate positive influence. These results highlight the complex interplay between climate risks, economic factors, and the digitalization of public services. Policymakers should consider these findings to develop strategies that leverage digital technologies for climate change adaptation and sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124243"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Reconsider the role of digital revolution in public sector during the time of climate risk: Fresh insights from panel autoregression model\",\"authors\":\"Le Thanh Ha\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124243\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>This study investigates the dynamic relationship between digital public services and climate risks alongside factors like economic growth and trade share. The study uses a Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model with a dataset of 27 European countries. The findings indicate that climate risks initially hinder the development of digital public services, likely due to infrastructure damage and disruptions caused by extreme weather events. However, in the subsequent years, a positive correlation emerged, suggesting that governments increasingly recognize the importance of robust digital infrastructure in mitigating the adverse effects of climate risks and enhancing resilience. Additionally, economic growth demonstrates a delayed positive impact on digital public services, whereas trade share exhibits a more immediate positive influence. These results highlight the complex interplay between climate risks, economic factors, and the digitalization of public services. Policymakers should consider these findings to develop strategies that leverage digital technologies for climate change adaptation and sustainable development.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48454,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Technological Forecasting and Social Change\",\"volume\":\"219 \",\"pages\":\"Article 124243\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":13.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Technological Forecasting and Social Change\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162525002744\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162525002744","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究考察了数字公共服务与气候风险以及经济增长和贸易份额等因素之间的动态关系。该研究使用了面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,数据集来自27个欧洲国家。研究结果表明,气候风险最初阻碍了数字公共服务的发展,这可能是由于极端天气事件造成的基础设施破坏和中断。然而,在随后的几年里,出现了正相关关系,这表明各国政府越来越认识到强大的数字基础设施在减轻气候风险不利影响和增强抵御能力方面的重要性。此外,经济增长对数字公共服务的积极影响表现出延迟性,而贸易份额则表现出更直接的积极影响。这些结果凸显了气候风险、经济因素和公共服务数字化之间复杂的相互作用。决策者应考虑这些发现,制定利用数字技术促进气候变化适应和可持续发展的战略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Reconsider the role of digital revolution in public sector during the time of climate risk: Fresh insights from panel autoregression model
This study investigates the dynamic relationship between digital public services and climate risks alongside factors like economic growth and trade share. The study uses a Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model with a dataset of 27 European countries. The findings indicate that climate risks initially hinder the development of digital public services, likely due to infrastructure damage and disruptions caused by extreme weather events. However, in the subsequent years, a positive correlation emerged, suggesting that governments increasingly recognize the importance of robust digital infrastructure in mitigating the adverse effects of climate risks and enhancing resilience. Additionally, economic growth demonstrates a delayed positive impact on digital public services, whereas trade share exhibits a more immediate positive influence. These results highlight the complex interplay between climate risks, economic factors, and the digitalization of public services. Policymakers should consider these findings to develop strategies that leverage digital technologies for climate change adaptation and sustainable development.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
21.30
自引率
10.80%
发文量
813
期刊介绍: Technological Forecasting and Social Change is a prominent platform for individuals engaged in the methodology and application of technological forecasting and future studies as planning tools, exploring the interconnectedness of social, environmental, and technological factors. In addition to serving as a key forum for these discussions, we offer numerous benefits for authors, including complimentary PDFs, a generous copyright policy, exclusive discounts on Elsevier publications, and more.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信