海上职业事故分析:数据驱动的贝叶斯网络方法

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY
Jilong Yu , Jian Zhao , Xinjian Wang , Yuhao Cao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

船上具有挑战性的工作条件不断使海员面临重大风险,但对海上职业事故的研究仍然很少。为了解决这一差距,本研究采用统计技术和树增强朴素贝叶斯网络(TAN-BN)模型对海上职业事故的风险影响因素(rif)进行了全面分析。本研究分析了2013年至2021年505起海上职业事故案例,确定了17起与船员、船舶因素、人为因素和外部环境因素后果相关的RIFs。该方法涉及使用数据库:1)进行统计分析,描绘海上职业事故的主要特征和趋势;2)开发和完善TAN-BN模型,以确定影响事故严重程度、受伤船员人数、受影响的具体身体部位、受伤性质、受伤人员的级别和年龄的五个主要因素。通过敏感性分析和真实事故案例进一步验证,该模型具有强大的预测准确性,有助于识别潜在原因。本研究为海事利益相关者制定海事职业事故预防、职业安全保护和事故后管理的法规和措施提供了创新的实践意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Maritime occupational accidents analysis: A data-driven Bayesian network approach
The challenging working conditions aboard ships continuously expose seafarers to significant risks, yet research into maritime occupational accidents remains sparse. To address this gap, this study employs both statistical techniques and the Tree-Augmented Naive Bayesian Network (TAN-BN) model for a comprehensive analysis of Risk Influential Factors (RIFs) in maritime occupational accidents. This study analyses 505 maritime occupational accident cases from 2013 to 2021, identifying 17 RIFs related to consequences on crew, ship factors, human factors, and external environment factors. The approach involves using the database to: 1) conduct statistical analyses that delineate the principal characteristics and trends of maritime occupational accidents, and 2) develop and refine the TAN-BN model to pinpoint the five primary factors impacting accident severity, the number of injured crew members, the specific body part affected, the nature of the injury, the rank of the injured personnel, and their age. Further validation through sensitivity analysis and real-world accident cases confirms the model's robust predictive accuracy, aiding in the identification of underlying causes. This study provides innovative practical implications for maritime stakeholders to develop regulations and measures in the prevention of maritime occupational accidents, protection of occupational safety, and post-accident management.
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来源期刊
Ocean & Coastal Management
Ocean & Coastal Management 环境科学-海洋学
CiteScore
8.50
自引率
15.20%
发文量
321
审稿时长
60 days
期刊介绍: Ocean & Coastal Management is the leading international journal dedicated to the study of all aspects of ocean and coastal management from the global to local levels. We publish rigorously peer-reviewed manuscripts from all disciplines, and inter-/trans-disciplinary and co-designed research, but all submissions must make clear the relevance to management and/or governance issues relevant to the sustainable development and conservation of oceans and coasts. Comparative studies (from sub-national to trans-national cases, and other management / policy arenas) are encouraged, as are studies that critically assess current management practices and governance approaches. Submissions involving robust analysis, development of theory, and improvement of management practice are especially welcome.
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