Thomas C McHale, David R Boulware, Kelly Searle, Leda Kobziar, Phinehas Lampman, Julio C Zuniga-Moya, Ben Papadopoulos, Andrej Spec, Naomi E Hauser, George R Thompson
{"title":"2019年冠状病毒病病例和死亡与2020年暴露于野火颗粒物的时空关系","authors":"Thomas C McHale, David R Boulware, Kelly Searle, Leda Kobziar, Phinehas Lampman, Julio C Zuniga-Moya, Ben Papadopoulos, Andrej Spec, Naomi E Hauser, George R Thompson","doi":"10.1093/ofid/ofaf262","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Climate change is anticipated to have profound effects on human health, including in infectious diseases. Wildfires have been increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change and have been linked to worsening respiratory disease outcomes. We aimed to demonstrate whether there was an association between wildfire smoke and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in California during 2020.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used an ecologic cohort study with a spatial autoregressive model to test for associations between wildfire smoke, measured as particulate matter <2.5 µg/m<sup>3</sup> and COVID-19 cases and deaths at the county level in California in 2020. All data was downloaded from open sources that were freely available to the public. In our spatial autoregressive model, we adjusted for demographic, environmental factors and spatial autocorrelation that could be associated with the exposure and outcome.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In an adjusted analysis, we found a 1-month lag increase of 203 COVID-19 cases per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m<sup>3</sup> of smoke exposure (<i>P</i> < .001) at the county level. There was a 1-month lag increase of 2.75 COVID-19 deaths per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m<sup>3</sup> of smoke exposure (<i>P</i> < .001) at the county level. These findings were attenuated in the second month after smoke exposure, with a 2-month lag increase of 80.6 COVID-19 cases per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m<sup>3</sup> of smoke exposure (<i>P</i> = .002) and no 2-month lag association with COVID-19 deaths.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The year 2020 was particularly strong for wildfires in California and a unique year for infectious diseases with the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings demonstrate that wildfire smoke exposure likely increased the spread of COVID-19 and worsened the mortality rate.</p>","PeriodicalId":19517,"journal":{"name":"Open Forum Infectious Diseases","volume":"12 6","pages":"ofaf262"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12152477/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Spatiotemporal Association of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases and Deaths With Exposure to Wildfire Particulate Matter in 2020.\",\"authors\":\"Thomas C McHale, David R Boulware, Kelly Searle, Leda Kobziar, Phinehas Lampman, Julio C Zuniga-Moya, Ben Papadopoulos, Andrej Spec, Naomi E Hauser, George R Thompson\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/ofid/ofaf262\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Climate change is anticipated to have profound effects on human health, including in infectious diseases. Wildfires have been increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change and have been linked to worsening respiratory disease outcomes. We aimed to demonstrate whether there was an association between wildfire smoke and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in California during 2020.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used an ecologic cohort study with a spatial autoregressive model to test for associations between wildfire smoke, measured as particulate matter <2.5 µg/m<sup>3</sup> and COVID-19 cases and deaths at the county level in California in 2020. All data was downloaded from open sources that were freely available to the public. In our spatial autoregressive model, we adjusted for demographic, environmental factors and spatial autocorrelation that could be associated with the exposure and outcome.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In an adjusted analysis, we found a 1-month lag increase of 203 COVID-19 cases per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m<sup>3</sup> of smoke exposure (<i>P</i> < .001) at the county level. There was a 1-month lag increase of 2.75 COVID-19 deaths per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m<sup>3</sup> of smoke exposure (<i>P</i> < .001) at the county level. These findings were attenuated in the second month after smoke exposure, with a 2-month lag increase of 80.6 COVID-19 cases per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m<sup>3</sup> of smoke exposure (<i>P</i> = .002) and no 2-month lag association with COVID-19 deaths.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The year 2020 was particularly strong for wildfires in California and a unique year for infectious diseases with the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings demonstrate that wildfire smoke exposure likely increased the spread of COVID-19 and worsened the mortality rate.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19517,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Open Forum Infectious Diseases\",\"volume\":\"12 6\",\"pages\":\"ofaf262\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12152477/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Open Forum Infectious Diseases\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofaf262\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/6/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"IMMUNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Open Forum Infectious Diseases","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofaf262","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/6/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"IMMUNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Spatiotemporal Association of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases and Deaths With Exposure to Wildfire Particulate Matter in 2020.
Background: Climate change is anticipated to have profound effects on human health, including in infectious diseases. Wildfires have been increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change and have been linked to worsening respiratory disease outcomes. We aimed to demonstrate whether there was an association between wildfire smoke and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in California during 2020.
Methods: We used an ecologic cohort study with a spatial autoregressive model to test for associations between wildfire smoke, measured as particulate matter <2.5 µg/m3 and COVID-19 cases and deaths at the county level in California in 2020. All data was downloaded from open sources that were freely available to the public. In our spatial autoregressive model, we adjusted for demographic, environmental factors and spatial autocorrelation that could be associated with the exposure and outcome.
Results: In an adjusted analysis, we found a 1-month lag increase of 203 COVID-19 cases per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m3 of smoke exposure (P < .001) at the county level. There was a 1-month lag increase of 2.75 COVID-19 deaths per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m3 of smoke exposure (P < .001) at the county level. These findings were attenuated in the second month after smoke exposure, with a 2-month lag increase of 80.6 COVID-19 cases per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m3 of smoke exposure (P = .002) and no 2-month lag association with COVID-19 deaths.
Conclusions: The year 2020 was particularly strong for wildfires in California and a unique year for infectious diseases with the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings demonstrate that wildfire smoke exposure likely increased the spread of COVID-19 and worsened the mortality rate.
期刊介绍：
Open Forum Infectious Diseases provides a global forum for the publication of clinical, translational, and basic research findings in a fully open access, online journal environment. The journal reflects the broad diversity of the field of infectious diseases, and focuses on the intersection of biomedical science and clinical practice, with a particular emphasis on knowledge that holds the potential to improve patient care in populations around the world. Fully peer-reviewed, OFID supports the international community of infectious diseases experts by providing a venue for articles that further the understanding of all aspects of infectious diseases.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
