US employment exposure to domestic and foreign tariff changes under NAFTA

Literature examining the effects of changes in trade agreements and import competition on US employment and wages has focused primarily on non-agricultural industries and changes in US import tariffs. We propose a method for measuring worker exposure to changes in agricultural tariffs using a newly developed county-level dataset of employment shares by crop and livestock type. We apply the method to examine the spatial concentration of US county-level employment-weighted exposure to changes in tariffs caused by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Results reveal noteworthy decreases in average US county-level crop and livestock employment exposure to Mexican import tariffs on US products. Findings also show spatial variation in US employment exposure to changes in Mexican import tariffs on US agricultural and non-agricultural goods. Changes in county-level employment exposure to US and Canadian import tariffs after NAFTA implementation are relatively minor given low initial tariff rates prior to the agreement.