Projecting cropland climatic potential productivity change in China under human activity and climate force

Human activity and climate change threaten agricultural production, making it crucial to understand their impacts on cropland potential productivity (CLPP). Our study examines cropland climatic potential productivity (CLCPP), a climate-specific derivative of CLPP that represents the maximum crop yield achievable under optimal non-climatic conditions but constrained by climate. The respective impacts of future climate change and cropland use change (CLUC) on CLCPP remain inadequately studied. Using a newly produced scenario-based CLUC dataset and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) climate projections, we assessed the CLCPP variation and their relative contributions in China during 2020–2100. Results show that the total CLCPP in China will increase from 771 million tons (Mt) in 2020 to 871–1744 Mt. in 2100, except under the uneven regional development scenario (i.e., the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario). Climate change will increase the total CLCPP by 10.10 % ∼ 91.11 % under the medium- and high-emission scenarios and decrease the total CLCPP under the low-emission scenarios. CLUC will mitigate the negative impact of climate change on the total CLCPP under low-emission scenarios, thereby increasing it by 12.89 % ∼ 56.71 % under comprehensive conditions (i.e., both climate change and CLUC). Spatially, the area with a high contribution (>50 %) of climate change to the CLCPP variation will cover 35.58 % to 48.02 % of the total cropland area, while the ratio with a low contribution (≤2 %) of the CLUC will cover 45.84 % ∼ 56.94 %. Climate change has more substantial impact on CLCPP variation than that CLUC. Our findings suggest that the medium-emission scenario (i.e., the SSP2-RCP4.5 scenario) is the priority pathway for increasing China's CLCPP.