{"title":"德克萨斯州奥斯汀市的一起谋杀案：一份以活动水平命题为特征的案件报告。","authors":"John Buckleton DSc","doi":"10.1111/1556-4029.70099","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This report discusses the analysis of the evidence given activity level propositions for a murder case in Austin, Texas. The testimony in this case has been the subject of a complaint to the Texas Forensic Science Commission and a subsequent report. A Bayes' net is constructed for the propositions <b><i>H</i></b><sub><b>p</b></sub>: A took W's bike from the scene of the murder to an alley where her Jeep Grand Cherokee was parked and then threw the bike into some bushes. <b><i>H</i></b><sub><b>a</b></sub>: Somebody other than A took W's bike from the apartment, rode it, and disposed of it in some bushes. A has never had any contact with W's bike. Based on published data and explicitly stated subjective probability assignments, the likelihood ratio is about 1300 in favor of <b><i>H</i></b><sub>p</sub>. This analysis supports that the original testimony given in rebuttal was correct.</p>","PeriodicalId":15743,"journal":{"name":"Journal of forensic sciences","volume":"70 5","pages":"2064-2071"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A murder in Austin Texas: A case report featuring evaluation given activity level propositions\",\"authors\":\"John Buckleton DSc\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/1556-4029.70099\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>This report discusses the analysis of the evidence given activity level propositions for a murder case in Austin, Texas. The testimony in this case has been the subject of a complaint to the Texas Forensic Science Commission and a subsequent report. A Bayes' net is constructed for the propositions <b><i>H</i></b><sub><b>p</b></sub>: A took W's bike from the scene of the murder to an alley where her Jeep Grand Cherokee was parked and then threw the bike into some bushes. <b><i>H</i></b><sub><b>a</b></sub>: Somebody other than A took W's bike from the apartment, rode it, and disposed of it in some bushes. A has never had any contact with W's bike. Based on published data and explicitly stated subjective probability assignments, the likelihood ratio is about 1300 in favor of <b><i>H</i></b><sub>p</sub>. This analysis supports that the original testimony given in rebuttal was correct.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":15743,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of forensic sciences\",\"volume\":\"70 5\",\"pages\":\"2064-2071\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of forensic sciences\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1556-4029.70099\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"MEDICINE, LEGAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of forensic sciences","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1556-4029.70099","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MEDICINE, LEGAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
A murder in Austin Texas: A case report featuring evaluation given activity level propositions
This report discusses the analysis of the evidence given activity level propositions for a murder case in Austin, Texas. The testimony in this case has been the subject of a complaint to the Texas Forensic Science Commission and a subsequent report. A Bayes' net is constructed for the propositions Hp: A took W's bike from the scene of the murder to an alley where her Jeep Grand Cherokee was parked and then threw the bike into some bushes. Ha: Somebody other than A took W's bike from the apartment, rode it, and disposed of it in some bushes. A has never had any contact with W's bike. Based on published data and explicitly stated subjective probability assignments, the likelihood ratio is about 1300 in favor of Hp. This analysis supports that the original testimony given in rebuttal was correct.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Forensic Sciences (JFS) is the official publication of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences (AAFS). It is devoted to the publication of original investigations, observations, scholarly inquiries and reviews in various branches of the forensic sciences. These include anthropology, criminalistics, digital and multimedia sciences, engineering and applied sciences, pathology/biology, psychiatry and behavioral science, jurisprudence, odontology, questioned documents, and toxicology. Similar submissions dealing with forensic aspects of other sciences and the social sciences are also accepted, as are submissions dealing with scientifically sound emerging science disciplines. The content and/or views expressed in the JFS are not necessarily those of the AAFS, the JFS Editorial Board, the organizations with which authors are affiliated, or the publisher of JFS. All manuscript submissions are double-blind peer-reviewed.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
