{"title":"预测感染性休克儿童急性肾损伤的危险因素:一项回顾性队列研究。","authors":"Yu Fang, Weihong Zheng, Kepei Chen, Qiqi Gao, Wenwen Jin, Wei Hu, Yu Chen, Zhenlang Lin, Guoquan Pan, Wei Lin","doi":"10.1007/s00467-025-06834-x","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a prevalent and severe complication of septic shock in children, yet data on its risk factors remain scarce. This study aims to identify key predictors for AKI in this population and develop a clinical model for early risk assessment.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 180 children diagnosed with septic shock at a large tertiary hospital in China over 10 years. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for AKI. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a clinical predictive nomogram for assessing the risk of sepsis-associated AKI (SA-AKI) in children with septic shock was established and validated using the \"rms\" package in R 4.3.0 software.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The incidence of AKI in children with septic shock was 44.4%, with significant predictors identified as greater height (95% CI 1.01-1.04), positive random proteinuria (95% CI 1.17-13.09), elevated procalcitonin levels (95% CI 1.00-1.04), base excess (95% CI 0.85-0.99), increased blood urea nitrogen levels (95% CI 1.03-1.22), and prolonged prothrombin time by ≥ 3 s (95% CI 1.13-11.43). Early use of antibiotics (95% CI 0.03-0.77) demonstrated a protective effect. The developed clinical predictive nomogram's ROC curve AUC was 0.895 (95% CI 0.836-0.955), with a sensitivity of 77.1% and specificity of 88.9%. It outperformed individual variables in predicting SA-AKI, and demonstrated good calibration and clinical utility as shown by the calibration and DCA curve. Internal validation by the bootstrap resampling method (1000 times) confirmed the model's accuracy with an AUC of 0.895 (95% CI 0.893-0.896).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Recognizing these risk factors facilitates timely interventions for pediatric patients with septic shock. The nomogram serves as a valuable tool for clinicians, improving the management of AKI and potentially enhancing patient outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":19735,"journal":{"name":"Pediatric Nephrology","volume":" ","pages":"3563-3575"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Risk factors for predicting acute kidney injury in children with septic shock: a retrospective cohort study.\",\"authors\":\"Yu Fang, Weihong Zheng, Kepei Chen, Qiqi Gao, Wenwen Jin, Wei Hu, Yu Chen, Zhenlang Lin, Guoquan Pan, Wei Lin\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s00467-025-06834-x\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a prevalent and severe complication of septic shock in children, yet data on its risk factors remain scarce. This study aims to identify key predictors for AKI in this population and develop a clinical model for early risk assessment.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 180 children diagnosed with septic shock at a large tertiary hospital in China over 10 years. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for AKI. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a clinical predictive nomogram for assessing the risk of sepsis-associated AKI (SA-AKI) in children with septic shock was established and validated using the \\\"rms\\\" package in R 4.3.0 software.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The incidence of AKI in children with septic shock was 44.4%, with significant predictors identified as greater height (95% CI 1.01-1.04), positive random proteinuria (95% CI 1.17-13.09), elevated procalcitonin levels (95% CI 1.00-1.04), base excess (95% CI 0.85-0.99), increased blood urea nitrogen levels (95% CI 1.03-1.22), and prolonged prothrombin time by ≥ 3 s (95% CI 1.13-11.43). Early use of antibiotics (95% CI 0.03-0.77) demonstrated a protective effect. The developed clinical predictive nomogram's ROC curve AUC was 0.895 (95% CI 0.836-0.955), with a sensitivity of 77.1% and specificity of 88.9%. It outperformed individual variables in predicting SA-AKI, and demonstrated good calibration and clinical utility as shown by the calibration and DCA curve. Internal validation by the bootstrap resampling method (1000 times) confirmed the model's accuracy with an AUC of 0.895 (95% CI 0.893-0.896).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Recognizing these risk factors facilitates timely interventions for pediatric patients with septic shock. The nomogram serves as a valuable tool for clinicians, improving the management of AKI and potentially enhancing patient outcomes.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19735,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Pediatric Nephrology\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"3563-3575\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-11-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Pediatric Nephrology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00467-025-06834-x\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/6/11 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PEDIATRICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pediatric Nephrology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00467-025-06834-x","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/6/11 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PEDIATRICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
背景:急性肾损伤(AKI)是儿童感染性休克的一种常见且严重的并发症,但关于其危险因素的数据仍然很少。本研究旨在确定该人群AKI的关键预测因素,并建立早期风险评估的临床模型。方法:回顾性分析国内某大型三级医院10年来收治的感染性休克患儿180例的临床资料。进行多变量分析以确定AKI的独立危险因素。基于多因素分析结果,建立脓毒症患儿脓毒症相关AKI (SA-AKI)风险评估的临床预测图,并采用r4.3.0软件中的“rms”包进行验证。结果:感染性休克患儿AKI发生率为44.4%,显著的预测因素包括身高增高(95% CI 1.01-1.04)、随机蛋白尿阳性(95% CI 1.17-13.09)、降钙素原水平升高(95% CI 1.00-1.04)、碱性过量(95% CI 0.85-0.99)、尿素氮水平升高(95% CI 1.03-1.22)、凝血酶原时间延长≥3 s (95% CI 1.13-11.43)。早期使用抗生素(95% CI 0.03-0.77)显示出保护作用。建立的临床预测nomogram ROC曲线AUC为0.895 (95% CI 0.836-0.955),敏感性77.1%,特异性88.9%。它在预测SA-AKI方面优于单个变量,并且通过校准和DCA曲线显示出良好的校准和临床实用性。通过自举重采样方法(1000次)进行内部验证,模型的AUC为0.895 (95% CI 0.893-0.896)。结论:认识这些危险因素有助于对感染性休克患儿进行及时干预。nomogram心电图图是临床医生的一种有价值的工具,可以改善AKI的管理,并有可能提高患者的预后。
Risk factors for predicting acute kidney injury in children with septic shock: a retrospective cohort study.
Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a prevalent and severe complication of septic shock in children, yet data on its risk factors remain scarce. This study aims to identify key predictors for AKI in this population and develop a clinical model for early risk assessment.
Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 180 children diagnosed with septic shock at a large tertiary hospital in China over 10 years. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for AKI. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a clinical predictive nomogram for assessing the risk of sepsis-associated AKI (SA-AKI) in children with septic shock was established and validated using the "rms" package in R 4.3.0 software.
Results: The incidence of AKI in children with septic shock was 44.4%, with significant predictors identified as greater height (95% CI 1.01-1.04), positive random proteinuria (95% CI 1.17-13.09), elevated procalcitonin levels (95% CI 1.00-1.04), base excess (95% CI 0.85-0.99), increased blood urea nitrogen levels (95% CI 1.03-1.22), and prolonged prothrombin time by ≥ 3 s (95% CI 1.13-11.43). Early use of antibiotics (95% CI 0.03-0.77) demonstrated a protective effect. The developed clinical predictive nomogram's ROC curve AUC was 0.895 (95% CI 0.836-0.955), with a sensitivity of 77.1% and specificity of 88.9%. It outperformed individual variables in predicting SA-AKI, and demonstrated good calibration and clinical utility as shown by the calibration and DCA curve. Internal validation by the bootstrap resampling method (1000 times) confirmed the model's accuracy with an AUC of 0.895 (95% CI 0.893-0.896).
Conclusions: Recognizing these risk factors facilitates timely interventions for pediatric patients with septic shock. The nomogram serves as a valuable tool for clinicians, improving the management of AKI and potentially enhancing patient outcomes.
期刊介绍:
International Pediatric Nephrology Association
Pediatric Nephrology publishes original clinical research related to acute and chronic diseases that affect renal function, blood pressure, and fluid and electrolyte disorders in children. Studies may involve medical, surgical, nutritional, physiologic, biochemical, genetic, pathologic or immunologic aspects of disease, imaging techniques or consequences of acute or chronic kidney disease. There are 12 issues per year that contain Editorial Commentaries, Reviews, Educational Reviews, Original Articles, Brief Reports, Rapid Communications, Clinical Quizzes, and Letters to the Editors.