Spatiotemporal variability of sea ice and its meteorological drivers in Liaodong Bay, China (2014–2024)

Sea ice, an essential part of the Earth’s climate system, significantly impacts global climate and coastal infrastructure. While most of the focus is on polar regions, mid-latitude sea ice dynamics remain less understood. This study investigates sea ice variability in Liaodong Bay from 2014 to 2024 by combining remote sensing, field observations, and statistical analyses. The sea ice conditions in the past decade are relatively stable, with an average duration of 88 days and a maximum area of less than $10000{km}^2$. However, the winter of 2023–2024 experienced record-high anomalies, including premature ice expansion, peak coverage, and late-season resurgence. The dynamics were driven by localized thermal inertia (4-day temperature memory, $r=-0.55$) and wind-ice coupling (northeasterly winds $>10$ m/s). Large-scale climate indices, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Pacific (NP), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), showed low correlations ($\left|r\right|<0.25$), confirming a locally dominated ice system. The extreme ice growth in 2023–2024 was triggered by record cold snaps ($-23.5^{\circ }$C) and oceanic heat deficit ($-1.2^{\circ }$C below decadal mean SST), which showed the bay’s vulnerability to compound effect of climate change, despite its locally dominated ice dynamics. The conclusion of this study can provide references for coastal engineering and disaster prevention.