Katabatic and foehn winds control the distribution of supraglacial lakes in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

Meltwater ponding along the margins of Antarctica poses a threat to ice shelf stability, increasing the risk of accelerated inland ice mass loss. Understanding the key drivers of supraglacial lake formation is therefore essential for assessing the vulnerability and future stability of Antarctic ice shelves. In this study, we combine high-resolution simulation from the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) with satellite-derived records of supraglacial lakes in coastal Dronning Maud Land to investigate the role of topographic downslope winds on spatial lake distribution. We find that persistent katabatic winds and episodic foehn winds are key controls on the observed regional patterns of lakes. Katabatic winds, most persistent in eastern Dronning Maud Land, exert a sustained impact near grounding zones through snow erosion, scouring and sublimation. Foehn winds predominantly affect ice shelves on the lee (western) side of large ice rises and promontories, causing considerable surface warming. While these downslope winds directly contribute to surface melt and ponding during summer, they also precondition the surface year-round through wind-driven warming and sublimation. Statistical analysis of downslope wind exposure further allows us to identify other Antarctic ice shelves that may become vulnerable to future ponding as firn retention capacity is diminished.