固定汇率制度下的产出差异

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104115

Yao Chen , Felix Ward

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文提出了违反名义汇率制度中立性的经验证据。我们发现，固定汇率与挂钩前通胀率较高的国家的实际产出损失有关。特别是，在固定汇率十年后，一个国家在挂钩前工资通胀差异+1个百分点（ppt），实际人均GDP水平降低2%，TFP水平降低1%。可贸易部门比不可贸易部门受到的影响更大，这与前者更容易受到国际套利的影响是一致的。

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Output divergence in fixed exchange rate regimes

This paper presents empirical evidence for the violation of nominal exchange regime neutrality. We find that fixing the exchange rate is associated with real output losses among countries with a high pre-peg inflation rate. In particular, ten years after fixing the exchange rate a country with a +1 percentage point (ppt) pre-peg wage inflation differential has a 2% lower real GDP per capita level and a 1% lower TFP level. The tradable sector is more affected than the non-tradable sector, which accords with the former’s greater exposure to international arbitrage.

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.