新安河流域生态补偿试点中个体预期政策效用驱动机制研究

IF 5.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY
Xuan Dong , Ke Jiang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

流域生态补偿(WEC)通过协调流域个体之间的利益冲突,成为促进区域协调发展的重要手段。在实践中考虑WEC项目投资者和供应商的客观利益的同时,心理因素也显著影响着战略决策。为了检验预期政策效用对个体行为的影响,并促进生态环境承载力的有效实施,本研究以中国首个省际生态环境承载力在新安河流域的试点为研究对象。建立了一个基于前景理论的进化博弈模型来描述不确定条件下的行为动力学。然后分别讨论了基于复制动力学方程的个体演化和稳态策略。此外,基于WEC-XRB项目进行了数值模拟,以检验进化稳定策略并验证研究结果。研究结果表明:(1)WEC-XRB项目战略决策在主观评价的影响下具有持续互动和优化的特征;(2)单边违约成本的增加和更高的惩罚比例显著增强了参与激励;(3)损失厌恶情绪高涨的投资者更倾向于参与项目,而供应商则表现出相反的倾向;(4)风险偏好系数的增加可能会促进更积极的利益相关者参与。这些见解为政策制定者完善世界经济论坛机制和加强可持续的区域间合作提供了强有力的框架。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Does individuals' expected policy utility drive watershed ecological compensation in China's Xin'an river basin pilot?
Watershed ecological compensation (WEC) has emerged as an essential tool for promoting regional coordinated development through reconciling the conflicting interests between watershed individuals. While the objective interests of the investors and suppliers in the WEC project are considered in practice, psychological factors also significantly influence the strategic decisions. To examine the impact of expected policy utility on individual behavior and to facilitate effective WEC implementation, this study focuses on China's first inter-provincial WEC pilot in the Xin'an River Basin (XRB). An evolutionary game model grounded in prospect theory is developed to capture behavioral dynamics under uncertainty. The evolution and steady state strategies of individuals are then separately discussed based on replicated dynamics equations. Furthermore, a numerical simulation based on the WEC-XRB project is conducted to examine the evolutionary stabilization strategies and validate the findings. Key findings indicate that: (1) the strategic decisions within the WEC-XRB project are characterized by continuous interaction and optimization influenced by subjective valuations; (2) augmented unilateral default costs and higher penalty proportions significantly bolster participation incentives; (3) investors exhibiting elevated loss aversion are predisposed to engage in the project, whereas suppliers demonstrate a contrasting tendency; and (4) an increased risk preference coefficient may serve as a catalyst for more proactive stakeholder engagement. These insights offer a robust framework for policymakers to refine WEC mechanisms and enhance sustainable inter-regional collaboration.
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来源期刊
Ocean & Coastal Management
Ocean & Coastal Management 环境科学-海洋学
CiteScore
8.50
自引率
15.20%
发文量
321
审稿时长
60 days
期刊介绍: Ocean & Coastal Management is the leading international journal dedicated to the study of all aspects of ocean and coastal management from the global to local levels. We publish rigorously peer-reviewed manuscripts from all disciplines, and inter-/trans-disciplinary and co-designed research, but all submissions must make clear the relevance to management and/or governance issues relevant to the sustainable development and conservation of oceans and coasts. Comparative studies (from sub-national to trans-national cases, and other management / policy arenas) are encouraged, as are studies that critically assess current management practices and governance approaches. Submissions involving robust analysis, development of theory, and improvement of management practice are especially welcome.
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