热带气旋、西南季风和热带气旋增强西南季风对菲律宾西海岸降雨变率的影响

IF 4.4 2区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108273

Alwin Andriel L. Bathan , Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera , Faye Abigail T. Cruz , Jose Ramon T. Villarin , Joel T. Maquiling , Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza , John A. Manalo , Jun Matsumoto

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨了1961 - 2022年西南季风（SWM）高峰期（7 - 9月）菲律宾西海岸降水年际变化的驱动过程。具体来说，它描述了热带气旋（TC）、SWM和TC增强的SWM如何影响SWM降雨变率。菲律宾西海岸11个台站的降雨测量结果可分为直接TC降雨（PD）、间接TC降雨（PI）和SWM降雨（PSM）三种类型。PD、PI和PSM对SWM降水的年贡献率分别为15.4%、33.1%和51.5%。根据各年降水异常特征，发现4种降雨变率类型：PD增强而PSM抑制（D+S-）、PD抑制而PSM增强（D-S+）、PI增强而PSM抑制（I+S-）和PI抑制而PSM增强（I-S+）。利用ERA5数据进行的综合分析显示，每种类型都存在异常风和环流，导致TC路径和季风流的变化，这解释了降雨量的变化。值得注意的是，在D+S-情况下，台湾上空的异常反气旋使tc更靠近菲律宾，而在I+S-情况下，菲律宾以东的异常反气旋增强了信风。

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Influence of tropical cyclones, southwest monsoon, and tropical cyclone-enhanced southwest monsoon on rainfall variability over the western coast of the Philippines

This study investigates the processes driving interannual variability of rainfall over the western coast of the Philippines during the peak southwest monsoon (SWM) months (July–September) from 1961 to 2022. Specifically, it describes how tropical cyclones (TC), SWM, and TC-enhanced SWM influence SWM rainfall variability. Rainfall measurements from 11 stations along the western coast of the Philippines were classified into three types: direct TC rainfall (P_D), indirect TC rainfall (P_I), and SWM rainfall (P_SM). The yearly contributions of P_D, P_I, and P_SM to SWM rainfall were estimated to be 15.4 %, 33.1 %, and 51.5 %, respectively. Furthermore, four rainfall variability types were found depending on the characteristics of each year's rainfall anomalies: enhanced P_D but suppressed P_SM (D+S-), suppressed P_D but enhanced P_SM (D-S+), enhanced P_I but suppressed P_SM (I+S-), and suppressed P_I but enhanced P_SM (I-S+). Composite analysis using ERA5 data revealed the presence of anomalous winds and circulations unique to each type that causes variations in the TC tracks and the monsoon flow, which accounts for the rainfall variability. Notable ones are the anomalous anticyclone over Taiwan in the D+S- case, which pushes TCs closer to the Philippines, and the anomalous anticyclone east of the Philippines in the I+S- case, which enhances the trade winds.

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来源期刊

Atmospheric Research 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

9.40

自引率

10.90%

发文量

460

审稿时长

47 days

期刊介绍： The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.