Lazar Filipović, Suzana Putniković, Borko Stosic, Tatijana Stosic, Vladimir Djurdjević, Ivana Tošić
{"title":"基于SPI和SPEI的塞尔维亚1961 - 2020年干旱时空特征分析","authors":"Lazar Filipović, Suzana Putniković, Borko Stosic, Tatijana Stosic, Vladimir Djurdjević, Ivana Tošić","doi":"10.1002/joc.8803","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The main objective of this study was to analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Serbia using the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and the standardised precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The duration and severity of drought were determined, and the trend of the indices for different accumulation periods, for 3 months (SPI3 and SPEI3), 6 months (SPI6 and SPEI6) and 12 months (SPI12 and SPEI12) were analysed for 10 meteorological stations in Serbia in the period 1961–2020. There was a high correlation between the SPI and SPEI on all time scales. Droughts were observed in Serbia in the following periods: 1961–1963, 1971–1972, 1987–1993, 2000–2003 and after 2011. The drought observed in 2000–2001 was recorded with both indices for all time scales at all stations. The longest drought was measured from June 2011 to February 2013, with a duration of 21 months and a severity of −37.5 with the SPEI12 in Loznica. The 1972 drought is observed in almost all of Serbia, although it was more pronounced in northern Serbia. A statistically significant negative trend is observed for SPEI12 at 6 stations. The SPEI tends to show longer and more severe dry periods than the SPI for the later part of the period under consideration, especially after 2000. As there is a significant increase in temperature in Serbia, the SPEI is better suited than the SPI for analysing drought characteristics under warming conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8803","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Drought in Serbia From 1961 to 2020 Using SPI and SPEI\",\"authors\":\"Lazar Filipović, Suzana Putniković, Borko Stosic, Tatijana Stosic, Vladimir Djurdjević, Ivana Tošić\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/joc.8803\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The main objective of this study was to analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Serbia using the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and the standardised precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The duration and severity of drought were determined, and the trend of the indices for different accumulation periods, for 3 months (SPI3 and SPEI3), 6 months (SPI6 and SPEI6) and 12 months (SPI12 and SPEI12) were analysed for 10 meteorological stations in Serbia in the period 1961–2020. There was a high correlation between the SPI and SPEI on all time scales. Droughts were observed in Serbia in the following periods: 1961–1963, 1971–1972, 1987–1993, 2000–2003 and after 2011. The drought observed in 2000–2001 was recorded with both indices for all time scales at all stations. The longest drought was measured from June 2011 to February 2013, with a duration of 21 months and a severity of −37.5 with the SPEI12 in Loznica. The 1972 drought is observed in almost all of Serbia, although it was more pronounced in northern Serbia. A statistically significant negative trend is observed for SPEI12 at 6 stations. The SPEI tends to show longer and more severe dry periods than the SPI for the later part of the period under consideration, especially after 2000. As there is a significant increase in temperature in Serbia, the SPEI is better suited than the SPI for analysing drought characteristics under warming conditions.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":13779,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Climatology\",\"volume\":\"45 7\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-02-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8803\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Climatology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.8803\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Climatology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.8803","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Drought in Serbia From 1961 to 2020 Using SPI and SPEI
The main objective of this study was to analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Serbia using the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and the standardised precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The duration and severity of drought were determined, and the trend of the indices for different accumulation periods, for 3 months (SPI3 and SPEI3), 6 months (SPI6 and SPEI6) and 12 months (SPI12 and SPEI12) were analysed for 10 meteorological stations in Serbia in the period 1961–2020. There was a high correlation between the SPI and SPEI on all time scales. Droughts were observed in Serbia in the following periods: 1961–1963, 1971–1972, 1987–1993, 2000–2003 and after 2011. The drought observed in 2000–2001 was recorded with both indices for all time scales at all stations. The longest drought was measured from June 2011 to February 2013, with a duration of 21 months and a severity of −37.5 with the SPEI12 in Loznica. The 1972 drought is observed in almost all of Serbia, although it was more pronounced in northern Serbia. A statistically significant negative trend is observed for SPEI12 at 6 stations. The SPEI tends to show longer and more severe dry periods than the SPI for the later part of the period under consideration, especially after 2000. As there is a significant increase in temperature in Serbia, the SPEI is better suited than the SPI for analysing drought characteristics under warming conditions.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions