基于SPI和SPEI的塞尔维亚1961 - 2020年干旱时空特征分析

IF 3.5 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Lazar Filipović, Suzana Putniković, Borko Stosic, Tatijana Stosic, Vladimir Djurdjević, Ivana Tošić
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的主要目的是利用标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化降水和蒸散指数(SPEI)分析塞尔维亚干旱的时空特征。测定了塞尔维亚10个气象站1961-2020年干旱持续时间和严重程度,分析了3个月(SPI3和SPEI3)、6个月(SPI6和SPEI6)和12个月(SPI12和SPEI12)不同积累期指数的变化趋势。SPI与SPEI在各时间尺度上均有较高的相关性。塞尔维亚在以下时期观测到干旱:1961-1963年、1971-1972年、1987-1993年、2000-2003年和2011年之后。2000-2001年的干旱在所有站点的所有时间尺度上都用这两个指数进行了记录。2011年6月至2013年2月,Loznica的SPEI12干旱持续时间为21个月,严重程度为- 37.5。1972年的干旱几乎遍及塞尔维亚全境,尽管在塞尔维亚北部更为明显。SPEI12在6个站点呈显著负相关。在研究期的后期,特别是2000年以后,SPEI比SPI表现出更长和更严重的干旱期。由于塞尔维亚的气温显著上升,SPEI比SPI更适合分析变暖条件下的干旱特征。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Drought in Serbia From 1961 to 2020 Using SPI and SPEI

Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Drought in Serbia From 1961 to 2020 Using SPI and SPEI

The main objective of this study was to analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Serbia using the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and the standardised precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The duration and severity of drought were determined, and the trend of the indices for different accumulation periods, for 3 months (SPI3 and SPEI3), 6 months (SPI6 and SPEI6) and 12 months (SPI12 and SPEI12) were analysed for 10 meteorological stations in Serbia in the period 1961–2020. There was a high correlation between the SPI and SPEI on all time scales. Droughts were observed in Serbia in the following periods: 1961–1963, 1971–1972, 1987–1993, 2000–2003 and after 2011. The drought observed in 2000–2001 was recorded with both indices for all time scales at all stations. The longest drought was measured from June 2011 to February 2013, with a duration of 21 months and a severity of −37.5 with the SPEI12 in Loznica. The 1972 drought is observed in almost all of Serbia, although it was more pronounced in northern Serbia. A statistically significant negative trend is observed for SPEI12 at 6 stations. The SPEI tends to show longer and more severe dry periods than the SPI for the later part of the period under consideration, especially after 2000. As there is a significant increase in temperature in Serbia, the SPEI is better suited than the SPI for analysing drought characteristics under warming conditions.

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来源期刊
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
7.70%
发文量
417
审稿时长
4 months
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions
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