Kelvin S. Ng, Gregor C. Leckebusch, Kevin I. Hodges, Yaocun Zhang
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引用次数: 0
摘要
东亚夏季风(EASM)在东亚地区的水再分配中起着关键作用,包括由于局地极端降水的可能性而造成相当大的洪水风险。为深入了解未来东亚热带风暴的变化,有必要对造成东亚热带风暴极端降水的核心驱动因素梅雨锋(MYF)进行研究。虽然以前的研究已经在气候模式中考察了EASM的各个方面,但对重要的动态的综合评估,即MYF,在很大程度上仍然没有探索。本研究以ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5)为参考,对5 - 8月份38个CMIP6模型的梅雨锋表征进行了评价。我们的研究结果表明,几个CMIP6模式难以准确地再现MYF气候学,其表现随月份而变化。根据5月份MYF位置的东西偏倚对模型进行分类,我们确定了这些偏倚在EASM季节的不同月度演变。我们的研究表明,CMIP6模式对MYF气候学的错误描述与西北太平洋高压(特别是其西缘)的错误描述之间存在显著关联。其他潜在的偏差来源是基于对其他大尺度环流模式(如南亚高压)的错误描述,并且也进行了调查。此外,本文还比较了EASM不同方面的性能评价与以往的研究结果,并讨论了这些原则评价结果的可转移性。
Mei-yu Front Assessment in CMIP6 Earth System Models During the East Asian Summer Monsoon
The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) plays a pivotal role in redistributing water across East Asia, including contributing a considerable flood risk due to the potential for localized extreme precipitation. To gain insights into future EASM changes, it is crucial to explore the dynamics of a core driver of extreme precipitation during the EASM, the Mei-yu front (MYF). While prior studies have examined various aspects of EASM in climate models, the comprehensive assessment of the dynamically important, that is, MYF remains largely unexplored. In this study, we evaluate the Mei-yu front representation in 38 CMIP6 models from May to August using the ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) as reference. Our findings reveal that several CMIP6 models struggle to accurately reproduce the MYF climatology, with performance varying by month. By categorizing models based on the east–west bias of MYF position in May, we identify distinct monthly evolutions in these biases during the EASM season. Our study shows a significant association between the misrepresentation of the MYF climatology in CMIP6 models and the misrepresentation of the Western North Pacific High, particularly its western edge. Other potential sources of biases are based on the misrepresentation of other large-scale circulation patterns, such as the South Asian High, and are also investigated. Furthermore, the performance evaluation of different aspects of the EASM is compared to previous studies, and the transferability of those principle evaluation findings is discussed.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions