Encounter the unforeseen: Resilient supply chain modeling for a sustainable bioeconomy

Bioeconomic supply chains (BioSC) processing biogenic resources and substituting fossil-based products are prone to weather-induced feedstock supply disruptions, which likely increase in severity and frequency due to climate change. To attain supply security of biobased products that contribute to sustainable development, BioSCs should be equipped with a certain level of “resilience” against unexpected feedstock fluctuations. Existing BioSC models usually capture producer resilience to maximize profitability for anticipated feedstock scenarios. Consumer supply security for unanticipated events has drawn less attention. To encounter the unforeseen and both producer and consumer perspectives, we present a two-step approach: (1) resilient planning of a European BioSC producing bioethanol as petrol substitute from straw for both producer and consumer perspective; a novel step (2) assesses the “actual” resilience for unanticipated, random feedstock scenarios and economic, and environmental implications. While a producer-resilient supply chain has lower bioethanol production capacity and already high straw storage capacities to maximize profitability under feedstock fluctuations, supply security degrades. In contrast, consumer-resilient supply chains have higher production and storage capacities to maintain supply security. Although this network redundancy comes with higher environmental impacts from facility construction and supply chain operation (production and transport), the environmental benefit of substituting petrol exceeds those burdens in most environmental life cycle assessment categories. Consequently, consumer resilience can be congruent with environmental sustainability and should be supported by policymakers to strengthen European bioeconomy and guide producers toward consumer-resilient supply chains. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.