未来处理激增:一种新的量化方法,用于预测德国外部绝热复合系统的废物

IF 5.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Rafael Bischof, Rebekka Volk, Frank Schultmann
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究量化了1969年至2022年间在德国安装的外保温复合系统(ETICS),特别是作为保温层的膨胀聚苯乙烯(EPS)。采用自下而上的方法,对ETICS总体和EPS ETICS进行了大量量化,在NUTS-3层面进行了定位,确定了安装年限,并预测了未来的浪费。该方法包括将德国住宅和非住宅建筑分类为进一步的子类别和建筑年龄类别,以确定其各自的绝缘参数,如绝缘率和厚度,从而深入了解ETICS数量在建筑类别和类型、建筑年份和行政区域之间的分布。此外,废物流预测是通过对ETICS寿命的调查和单屋级概率寿命的抽样进行的。研究结果预测,到2050年,ETICS每年产生的EPS废物量将是现在的四倍,其中79%归因于住宅建筑,21%归因于非住宅建筑,主要在城市地区。废物预测结果显示,现有的废物处理路线不适合处理未来产生的废物,强调了废物处理的替代回收途径和改善废物处理政策的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Future disposal surge: A new quantification approach for predicting waste from external thermal insulation composite systems in Germany

Future disposal surge: A new quantification approach for predicting waste from external thermal insulation composite systems in Germany

This study quantifies external thermal insulation composite systems (ETICS), in particular expanded polystyrene (EPS) as the insulation layer, installed in Germany between 1969 and 2022. Employing a bottom-up approach, it conducts mass quantification, localization at the NUTS-3 level, determination of installation years, and prediction of future waste for both ETICS in general and EPS ETICS specifically. The methodology involves categorizing the German residential and non-residential building stock into further subcategories and construction age classes to determine their respective insulation parameters such as insulation rate and thickness providing insights into the distribution of ETICS quantities across building categories and types, construction years, and administrative districts. Additionally, waste stream predictions are carried out through surveys on ETICS lifetimes and single-house-level sampling of probabilistic lifetimes. The findings project a quadrupling of annual EPS waste generation from ETICS by 2050 compared to today, with 79% attributed to residential and 21% to non-residential buildings, predominantly in urban areas. The results of the ETICS waste prediction indicate that currently established disposal routes are unfit to handle future waste generation, underlining the importance of alternative recycling paths for ETICS and improved waste disposal policies.

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来源期刊
Journal of Industrial Ecology
Journal of Industrial Ecology 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
11.60
自引率
8.50%
发文量
117
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Industrial Ecology addresses a series of related topics: material and energy flows studies (''industrial metabolism'') technological change dematerialization and decarbonization life cycle planning, design and assessment design for the environment extended producer responsibility (''product stewardship'') eco-industrial parks (''industrial symbiosis'') product-oriented environmental policy eco-efficiency Journal of Industrial Ecology is open to and encourages submissions that are interdisciplinary in approach. In addition to more formal academic papers, the journal seeks to provide a forum for continuing exchange of information and opinions through contributions from scholars, environmental managers, policymakers, advocates and others involved in environmental science, management and policy.
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