{"title":"部分时不变面板数据回归","authors":"Hervé Cardot , Antonio Musolesi","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2025.110477","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In panel data analysis, temporal variation in the variable of interest is commonly exploited to eliminate individual-specific effects. However, even when the outcome variable follows a continuous distribution, its temporal variation may equal zero with positive probability, resulting in a mixture distribution characterized by a mass at zero alongside a continuous component. To address this, we propose a mixture model and derive estimators for both the conditional probability of no variation and the expected value of the continuous component, focusing on the partial effects. We establish the asymptotic consistency and normality of these estimators and show that paired bootstrap provides consistent confidence intervals for the expected outcome. Monte Carlo simulations show good finite-sample performance of the estimators and reveal that the zero-inflated phenomenon under study can yield substantially different functional relationships depending on the underlying parameters, often making linear models unreliable.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49475,"journal":{"name":"Statistics & Probability Letters","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 110477"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Partially time-invariant panel data regression\",\"authors\":\"Hervé Cardot , Antonio Musolesi\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.spl.2025.110477\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>In panel data analysis, temporal variation in the variable of interest is commonly exploited to eliminate individual-specific effects. However, even when the outcome variable follows a continuous distribution, its temporal variation may equal zero with positive probability, resulting in a mixture distribution characterized by a mass at zero alongside a continuous component. To address this, we propose a mixture model and derive estimators for both the conditional probability of no variation and the expected value of the continuous component, focusing on the partial effects. We establish the asymptotic consistency and normality of these estimators and show that paired bootstrap provides consistent confidence intervals for the expected outcome. Monte Carlo simulations show good finite-sample performance of the estimators and reveal that the zero-inflated phenomenon under study can yield substantially different functional relationships depending on the underlying parameters, often making linear models unreliable.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49475,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Statistics & Probability Letters\",\"volume\":\"226 \",\"pages\":\"Article 110477\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Statistics & Probability Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167715225001221\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Statistics & Probability Letters","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167715225001221","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
In panel data analysis, temporal variation in the variable of interest is commonly exploited to eliminate individual-specific effects. However, even when the outcome variable follows a continuous distribution, its temporal variation may equal zero with positive probability, resulting in a mixture distribution characterized by a mass at zero alongside a continuous component. To address this, we propose a mixture model and derive estimators for both the conditional probability of no variation and the expected value of the continuous component, focusing on the partial effects. We establish the asymptotic consistency and normality of these estimators and show that paired bootstrap provides consistent confidence intervals for the expected outcome. Monte Carlo simulations show good finite-sample performance of the estimators and reveal that the zero-inflated phenomenon under study can yield substantially different functional relationships depending on the underlying parameters, often making linear models unreliable.
期刊介绍:
Statistics & Probability Letters adopts a novel and highly innovative approach to the publication of research findings in statistics and probability. It features concise articles, rapid publication and broad coverage of the statistics and probability literature.
Statistics & Probability Letters is a refereed journal. Articles will be limited to six journal pages (13 double-space typed pages) including references and figures. Apart from the six-page limitation, originality, quality and clarity will be the criteria for choosing the material to be published in Statistics & Probability Letters. Every attempt will be made to provide the first review of a submitted manuscript within three months of submission.
The proliferation of literature and long publication delays have made it difficult for researchers and practitioners to keep up with new developments outside of, or even within, their specialization. The aim of Statistics & Probability Letters is to help to alleviate this problem. Concise communications (letters) allow readers to quickly and easily digest large amounts of material and to stay up-to-date with developments in all areas of statistics and probability.
The mainstream of Letters will focus on new statistical methods, theoretical results, and innovative applications of statistics and probability to other scientific disciplines. Key results and central ideas must be presented in a clear and concise manner. These results may be part of a larger study that the author will submit at a later time as a full length paper to SPL or to another journal. Theory and methodology may be published with proofs omitted, or only sketched, but only if sufficient support material is provided so that the findings can be verified. Empirical and computational results that are of significant value will be published.