Tourism prosperity and high-quality economic development

This study investigates the multifaceted impact of tourism prosperity on high-quality economic development (HQED), advancing the literature beyond traditional growth paradigms by identifying direct, mediating, moderating, and heterogeneous effects. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2011–2022), we demonstrate that tourism prosperity significantly promotes HQED, even after accounting for endogeneity through instrumental variable, PSM, and Heckman selection models. Mediation analysis reveals that this relationship operates partly through industrial upgrading and infrastructure development, while the digital economy serves as a critical moderator that enhances tourism's transformative effects. Heterogeneity analyses further show that tourism's developmental impact is stronger in regions with higher social consumption, coastal provinces, and areas east of the Hu Huanyong Line—underscoring the importance of local market strength, regional infrastructure, and geographic accessibility. Conversely, the effects are more modest in low-consumption and inland regions, where economic absorptive capacity is weaker. These findings suggest that while tourism can act as a strategic lever for structural economic upgrading and quality growth, its effectiveness is conditional on regional characteristics. Tailored policy strategies that integrate tourism with local economic development, digitalization, and infrastructure planning are essential to fully realize its high-quality growth potential.