Energy-Export Decoupling in China: Evolutionary Trends, Driving Forces, and Sectoral Heterogeneity (2002–2022)

This study utilizes a noncompetitive input–output (IO) model, the Tapio decoupling model, and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to examine the decoupling between China’s export trade growth and energy consumption from 2002 to 2022. The main findings are as follows: (1) Despite a declining share of total domestic energy consumption, China’s export trade continues to exert substantial energy demand, highlighting the need for enhanced energy efficiency to ensure sustainable trade growth. (2) Between 2002 and 2022, China made significant strides in decoupling export growth from energy consumption, with notable energy intensity reductions from 2002 to 2014. However, progress slowed post-2014. (3) Energy intensity reductions were the primary driver of decoupling, followed by export scale shifts, while trade structure changes had a lesser impact. Technological innovation, industrial restructuring, and green policies were key factors, enabling energy efficiency improvements and a shift to less energy-intensive sectors. This study analyzes China’s export growth and energy consumption, highlighting decoupling from energy use and offering insights into sustainable trade, economic-environmental integration, and policies for long-term global multidomain sustainability.