Modeling wildfire dynamics through a physics-based approach incorporating fuel moisture and landscape heterogeneity

Anthropogenic climate change has increased the probability, severity, and duration of heat waves and droughts, subsequently escalating the risk of wildfires. Mathematical and computational models can enhance our understanding of wildfire propagation dynamics. In this work, we present a simplified Advection–Diffusion–Reaction (ADR) model that accounts for the effect of fuel moisture, and also considers wind, local radiation, natural convection and topography. The model explicitly represents fuel moisture effects by means of the apparent calorific capacity method, distinguishing between live and dead fuel moisture content. Using this model, we conduct exploratory simulations and present theoretical insights into various modeling decisions in the context of ADR-based models. We aim to shed light on the interplay between the different modeled mechanisms in wildfire propagation to identify key factors influencing fire spread and to estimate the model’s predictive capacity.