Integrating BiLSTM-multi-head attention model for eco-compensation allocation and prediction in transboundary watersheds

The successful implementation of ecological compensation hinges on the establishment of reasonable compensation standards. This study develops a two-stage compensation standard allocation model and an ecosystem service value prediction model using an optimized BiLSTM-Multi-head Attention method. Based on the total cost, the standards are allocated across districts within the Yongding River Basin according to the revised ecosystem service values (ESV) from 2009 to 2020, with a prediction for 2021. The results show that the direct costs of comprehensive management in the Yongding River Basin amount to 362.21 million yuan, while the indirect costs reach 1725.52 million yuan, resulting in a total cost of 2087.73 million yuan. Upon allocation based on the revised ESV, the upstream areas primarily receive compensation, while downstream areas are the main payers. This trend has become increasingly pronounced since the initiation of collaborative management in 2016, with downstream areas facing increasing compensation burdens. Specifically, the average annual compensation burden of Tianjin's districts has risen from 6.39 million yuan in 2016 to 8.99 million yuan in 2020, and is predicted to be 9.05 million yuan in 2021. This trend is associated with the further development of Tianjin's economic functions and indicates intensified local ecological pressures. Coupled with the decline of ESV in downstream, it underscores the necessity to prioritize the preservation of ecological conservation areas. A market-oriented mechanism to realize the value of ecological products within the basin is also suggested to enhance the ecological benefits for ecosystem service providers and alleviate the burden on compensators. Moreover, the constructed systematic approach balances fairness and efficiency, leveraging collaborative management and enhancing overall sustainability.