世界上最极端的野火事件的增加可能是由火灾规模和同时性驱动的

IF 13.9 1区 生物学 Q1 ECOLOGY
Calum X. Cunningham, Grant J. Williamson, David M. J. S. Bowman
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引用次数: 0

摘要

回复S. J. sch;五、拯救自然生态;演变https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-025-02742-3(2025)加剧的火灾天气和不适当的土地管理助长了野火的增加,威胁着生态系统、社会和气候。We1最近确定了“能量极端”火灾事件,由MODIS卫星观测到的火灾释放的日火辐射功率总和(ΣFRP)来定义。中心发现是能量极端日火灾事件(≥99.99百分位数;N = 2913)的频率从2003年到2023年增加了一倍多,其中六个最极端的年份发生在最近7年。这突出了火灾行为的恶化程度,特别是在北方针叶林和温带针叶林,这对碳储存2,3和人类暴露于野火灾害4,5有重大影响。在他们最近的交流中,sch兹和Resco de Dios6对我们的发现提出了质疑,他们使用了一种完全不同的方法来描述火灾,即使用平均值和单个热点,而不是索引更广泛的火灾事件释放的能量。下面我们将解释为什么他们的替代分析不适合追踪全球能量极端野火的变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Reply to: Increases in the world’s most extreme wildfire events probably driven by fire size and simultaneity

Reply to: Increases in the world’s most extreme wildfire events probably driven by fire size and simultaneity

replying to S. J. Schütze & V. Resco de Dios Nature Ecology & Evolution https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-025-02742-3 (2025)

Intensifying fire weather and inappropriate land management are fuelling an increase in wildfires that threaten ecosystems, societies and the climate. We1 recently identified ‘energetically extreme’ fire events, defined by the daily sum of fire radiative power (ΣFRP) released by fires observed by the MODIS satellites. The central finding was that energetically extreme daily fire events (≥99.99th percentile; n = 2,913) more than doubled in frequency from 2003 to 2023, with the six most extreme years occurring within the last 7 years. This highlights a worsening dimension of fire behaviour, particularly in boreal forests and temperate conifer forests, with major implications for carbon storage2,3 and human exposure to wildfire disasters4,5. In their recent communication, Schütze and Resco de Dios6 question our findings using a fundamentally different way of characterizing fires using averages and single hotspots as opposed to indexing the energy released by broader fire events. Below we explain why their alternative analysis is inappropriate for tracking changes in globally energetically extreme wildfires.

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来源期刊
Nature ecology & evolution
Nature ecology & evolution Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
CiteScore
22.20
自引率
2.40%
发文量
282
期刊介绍: Nature Ecology & Evolution is interested in the full spectrum of ecological and evolutionary biology, encompassing approaches at the molecular, organismal, population, community and ecosystem levels, as well as relevant parts of the social sciences. Nature Ecology & Evolution provides a place where all researchers and policymakers interested in all aspects of life's diversity can come together to learn about the most accomplished and significant advances in the field and to discuss topical issues. An online-only monthly journal, our broad scope ensures that the research published reaches the widest possible audience of scientists.
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