大气锋面驱动温带极端降水的未来变化

IF 4.6 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI:10.1029/2025GL116032

K. Konstali, T. Spengler, C. Spensberger, A. Sorteberg

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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着气候变化，极端降水预计将以比全球平均降水更快的速度增加。考虑到温带地区大部分极端降水与气旋、锋面和水汽输送轴有关，我们在一个气候模式（CESM2-LE）中分析了1950-2100年期间与这些天气特征及其组合相关的降水特征变化。我们发现与锋面相关的极端降水在温带地区显著增加。另一方面，与非锋面条件相关的极端降水在某些地区没有增加，甚至减少。因此，大气锋是未来温带极端降水变化的主要驱动因素。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Atmospheric Fronts Drive Future Changes in Extratropical Extreme Precipitation

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Atmospheric Fronts Drive Future Changes in Extratropical Extreme Precipitation

Extreme precipitation is expected to increase at a faster rate with climate change than the global average precipitation. Given that most of the extreme precipitation in the extratropics is associated with cyclones, fronts, and moisture transport axes, we analyze the changes in precipitation characteristics associated with these weather features, as well as their combinations, in a climate model (CESM2-LE) for the period 1950–2100. We find that extreme precipitation associated with fronts increases substantially in the extratropics. Extreme precipitation associated with non-frontal conditions, on the other hand, does not increase and even decreases in some regions. Hence, atmospheric fronts are the main driver of future extreme precipitation changes in the extratropics.

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来源期刊

Geophysical Research Letters 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

9.60%

发文量

1588

审稿时长

2.2 months

期刊介绍： Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.