Decarbonizing Mongolia: An integrated structural path and decomposition analysis of carbon emissions (2015–2021)

Mongolia exemplifies the developmental paradigm of small, low-industrialized developing economies, striving to address the dual challenges of socio-economic development and entrenched carbon dependency. This study establishes an environmentally extended input-output (EEIO) model for Mongolia's energy-related carbon emissions from 2015 to 2022. Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) and Structural Path Analysis (SPA) were systematically employed to quantify indirect emissions across sectors, identify primary drivers of carbon emissions, and map key carbon transmission pathways across sectors. Results indicate that Mongolia's total carbon emissions peaked at 97.03 MT in 2019, followed by a gradual decline, reflecting the initial effectiveness of improved energy efficiency. Production structure changes (26.87 %) drove pre-2019 emissions growth, while post-2019, carbon intensity reductions (-19.85 %) contributed most to mitigation, though efficiency gains alone remain insufficient. The Ele and Min sectors dominate cross-sectoral carbon flow, necessitating the implementation of sector-specific mitigation policies to address structural emission dependencies and transition pathway complexities. This study provides specific policy recommendations for Mongolia's decarbonization efforts, while the findings also highlight the importance and effectiveness of small, low-industrialized economies achieving sustainable low-carbon transitions within an international cooperation framework.