Systematic approach to the design, modeling, and techno-economic-environmental analysis of CO2 capture technologies as part of the National CCUS Assessment Framework (NCAF)

Given the commitment to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, the deployment of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies will be instrumental in reaching gigatonne-scale CO₂ mitigation. High costs driven by economies of scale, CO₂ partial pressures, and large energy demands, along with need for substantial new CO₂ transportation and storage infrastructure, are key barriers to large-scale the deployment of CCUS. This paper introduces the overall National CCUS Assessment Framework (NCAF) platform and its key elements to provide context on how it can be utilized to facilitate strategic planning of CCUS infrastructure at the regional to national scale. The NCAF platform, comprised of 5 components, combines rigorous datasets, costing and life cycle assessment (LCA) methods, optimization models, and visualization methods across the whole CCUS value chain. This paper focuses on the CO₂ Capture Modeling and Costing/LCA Tool providing details on overall approach, development steps, and the application of the techno-economic-environmental machine learning (ML) models to industry archetypes. Preliminary sensitivity and industry analysis show the robustness of the ML models, providing quick and accurate costs and environment burdens. Key parameters including flue gas flow rate and composition, capture rate, and product CO₂ pressure are explored, highlighting the ideal operating conditions when considering solvent-based post-combustion CO₂ capture. An exploratory analysis of over 300 Canadian emitting facilities provides practical information about how costs and overall global warming potential (GWP) vary between industry type, facility location, and production scale. Subsequent studies will focus on large-scale case studies to simultaneously determine and minimize the total cost of the entire CCUS value chain – CO₂ capture, transport, and storage.