Synergistic pathways: CO2 storage and subsurface resource utilization in China’s carbon-neutral goal

Carbon capcture and storage (CCS), as a pivotal negative emission technology for achieving carbon neutrality, has evolved from a singular storage model to synergistic utilization patterns. This evolution enables innovative solutions for balancing emission reduction and economic benefits through subsurface resource co-utilization. However, systematic understanding of China’s provincial carbon emission patterns and subsurface reservoir collaboration mechanisms remains inadequate, with limited technical frameworks ensuring storage safety-resource efficiency integration. This study establishes a carbon capcture and storage-resource synergy (CGS-Resource) model based on China’s provincial carbon emission data and fossil energy resources (raw coal, crude oil, natural gas), designed to: (1) analyzing pre-2030 emission trends and energy transitions; (2) designing provincial co-utilization pathways; (3) assessing collaborative potential; (4) establishing an integrated comprehensive georesource and CO₂ storage utilization (ICGCSU) framework; (5) elucidating ICGCSU’s strategic contributions to carbon neutrality. The findings reveal that shanxi (SX) and xinjiang (XJ) exhibit persistent emission growth trajectories, projected to reach 3034.38 Mt and 1112.06 Mt respectively by 2030, substantially exceeding stabilized-emission provinces. Energy production demonstrates differentiated transition characteristics: crude oil output stabilizes, natural gas maintains sustained growth, while raw coal experiences gradual expansion. Shaanxi (SX1), XJ, SX, and Inner Mongolia (NMG) demonstrate remarkable CCS-subsurface resource co-development potential, warranting selection as priority implementation zones for large-scale carbon sequestration and resource synergy. The ICGCSU framework proves effective in reducing CO₂ emission intensity. This research provides scientific decision-making support for China’s carbon neutrality pathway while establishing methodological foundations for optimized regional resource management.